CH4 Fluxes Derived from Assimilation of TROPOMI XCH4 in CarbonTracker Europe-CH4: Evaluation of Seasonality and Spatial Distribution in the Northern High Latitudes

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Abstract

Recent advances in satellite observations of methane provide increased opportunities for inverse modeling. However, challenges exist in the satellite observation optimization and retrievals for high latitudes. In this study, we examine possibilities and challenges in the use of the total column averaged dry-air mole fractions of methane (XCH4) data over land from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel 5 Precursor satellite in the estimation of CH4 fluxes using the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 (CTE-CH4) atmospheric inverse model. We carry out simulations assimilating two retrieval products: Netherlands Institute for Space Research’s (SRON) operational and University of Bremen’s Weighting Function Modified Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (WFM-DOAS). For comparison, we also carry out a simulation assimilating the ground-based surface data. Our results show smaller regional emissions in the TROPOMI inversions compared to the prior and surface inversion, although they are roughly within the range of the previous studies. The wetland emissions in summer and anthropogenic emissions in spring are lesser. The inversion results based on the two satellite datasets show many similarities in terms of spatial distribution and time series but also clear differences, especially in Canada, where CH4 emission maximum is later, when the SRON’s operational data are assimilated. The TROPOMI inversions show higher CH4 emissions from oil and gas production and coal mining from Russia and Kazakhstan. The location of hotspots in the TROPOMI inversions did not change compared to the prior, but all inversions indicated spatially more homogeneous high wetland emissions in northern Fennoscandia. In addition, we find that the regional monthly wetland emissions in the TROPOMI inversions do not correlate with the anthropogenic emissions as strongly as those in the surface inversion. The uncertainty estimates in the TROPOMI inversions are more homogeneous in space, and the regional uncertainties are comparable to the surface inversion. This indicates the potential of the TROPOMI data to better separately estimate wetland and anthropogenic emissions, as well as constrain spatial distributions. This study emphasizes the importance of quantifying and taking into account the model and retrieval uncertainties in regional levels in order to improve and derive more robust emission estimates.

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The ERA5 Global Reanalysis

Hans Hersbach, Bill D. Bell, Paul Berrisford … (2020)

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The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Marielle Saunois, Ann Stavert, Ben Poulter … (2020)

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project.

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Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

E A G Schuur, A McGuire, C. Schädel … (2015)

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.