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      Thyroid cancer: trends in incidence, mortality and clinical-pathological patterns in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China

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          Abstract

          Background

          Thyroid cancer is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Previous studies indicate a rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in recent decades, and this increase has aroused the great public concern. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in incidence, mortality and clinical-pathological patterns of thyroid cancer in Zhejiang province.

          Methods

          Population-based incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer were collected from eight cancer registries in Zhejiang from 2000 to 2012. The incidence and mortality rates were age-standardized to Segi’s world population. A Joinpoint model was used to examine secular trends in age-adjusted thyroid cancer rates with the Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.0.0. Thyroid cancer patients were recruited from Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from 1972 to 2014. Patient demographics, tumor histology and tumor size were compared among the different periods of 1972–1985, 1986–1999 and 2000–2014.

          Results

          The age-standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer in Zhejiang cancer registries was 2.75/10 5 in 2000, and increased to 19.42/10 5 in 2012. Additionally, we observed significantly increasing incidence rates with the Annual Percent Change (APC) of 22.86% (95%CI, 19.2%–26.7%). The age-standardized mortality of thyroid cancer in Zhejiang cancer registries was 0.23/10 5 in 2000 and 0.25/10 5 in 2012. No significant change in mortality rate was found. We observed a rapid increase in the proportions of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in 12,508 patients with thyroid carcinoma identified in the Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from 1972 to 2014 while the proportions of poorly differentiated thyroid cancer (PDTC), medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) and follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) decreased over the decades. In the PTC cases, the proportion of patients with maximum tumor diameter (MTD) < 1 cm dramatically and significantly increased from 0 in 1972–1985 to 32.1% in 2000–2014.

          Conclusions

          A rapid increase in incidence and a stable trend in mortality of thyroid cancer were found in the distribution of thyroid cancer. Most of the increased incidence was PTC, especially the papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) with MTD < 1 cm. This increase in incidence might be due to increased diagnosis with advanced technology.

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          Most cited references31

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          Cancer risk in 680 000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians

          Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100 000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.
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            Korea's thyroid-cancer "epidemic"--screening and overdiagnosis.

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              Increasing incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer in the United States, 1988-2005.

              Studies have reported an increasing incidence of thyroid cancer since 1980. One possible explanation for this trend is increased detection through more widespread and aggressive use of ultrasound and image-guided biopsy. Increases resulting from increased detection are most likely to involve small primary tumors rather than larger tumors, which often present as palpable thyroid masses. The objective of the current study was to investigate the trends in increasing incidence of differentiated (papillary and follicular) thyroid cancer by size, age, race, and sex. Cases of differentiated thyroid cancer (1988-2005) were analyzed using the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) dataset. Trends in incidence rates of papillary and follicular cancer, race, age, sex, primary tumor size ( 4 cm), and SEER stage (localized, regional, distant) were analyzed using joinpoint regression and reported as the annual percentage change (APC). Incidence rates increased for all sizes of tumors. Among men and women of all ages, the highest rate of increase was for primary tumors or =4 cm among men (1988-2005: APC, 3.7) and women (1988-2005: APC, 5.70) and for distant SEER stage disease among men (APC, 3.7) and women (APC, 2.3). The incidence rates of differentiated thyroid cancers of all sizes increased between 1988 and 2005 in both men and women. The increased incidence across all tumor sizes suggested that increased diagnostic scrutiny is not the sole explanation. Other explanations, including environmental influences and molecular pathways, should be investigated.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                yjsdlb0407@126.com
                yoyowong629@hotmail.com
                sxh123.ok@163.com
                huizhang_220@163.com
                gxw@zju.edu.cn
                86-571-88122598 , gemh@zjcc.org.cn
                86-571-88208362 , zhuym@zju.edu.cn
                Journal
                BMC Cancer
                BMC Cancer
                BMC Cancer
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2407
                15 March 2018
                15 March 2018
                2018
                : 18
                : 291
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1808 0985, GRID grid.417397.f, Zhejiang Cancer Center, , Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, ; No.30 Jichang Road, Hangzhou Zhejiang, 310004 China
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1759 700X, GRID grid.13402.34, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, , Zhejiang University School of Public Health, ; 388 Yu-Hang-Tang Road, Zhejiang, Hangzhou 310058 China
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1759 700X, GRID grid.13402.34, Department of Pharmacology, , Zhejiang University School of Medicine, ; Hangzhou, 310058 China
                [4 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1808 0985, GRID grid.417397.f, Head and Neck Surgery, , Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, ; No.1 East Banshan Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310022 China
                Article
                4081
                10.1186/s12885-018-4081-7
                5856225
                29544469
                6f56e4f1-9ef9-460f-b5d5-90b4ae6eada8
                © The Author(s). 2018

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 1 November 2016
                : 31 January 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: Grant Number 81550033
                Award ID: Grant Number 81672642
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Oncology & Radiotherapy
                thyroid cancer,ptmc,incidence,mortality,pathological classifications,over diagnosis

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