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      Climate-change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane

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          Abstract

          Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

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          Most cited references48

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          Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.

          Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
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            The velocity of climate change.

            The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with 'nowhere to go', such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate's ultimate persistence. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr(-1)), derived from spatial gradients ( degrees C km(-1)) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase ( degrees C yr(-1)) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth's surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr(-1) (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr(-1)), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr(-1)), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary.
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              Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                101513792
                36491
                Front Ecol Environ
                Front Ecol Environ
                Frontiers in ecology and the environment
                1540-9295
                1540-9309
                1 December 2020
                1 June 2020
                01 June 2021
                : 18
                : 5
                : 228-234
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, US Geological Survey (USGS), Amherst, MA
                [2 ]Center for Conservation Biology, University of California–Riverside, Riverside, CA
                [3 ]Department of Biology and Environmental Studies, Reed College, Portland, OR
                [4 ]Lower Mississippi–Gulf Water Science Center, USGS, Nashville, TN
                [5 ]Department of Integrative Biology and Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California–Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
                [6 ]Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
                [7 ]Pacific Ecological Systems Division, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR
                [8 ]Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
                [9 ]Conte Anadromous Fish Laboratory, USGS, Turners Falls, MA
                [10 ]Northern, Rocky Mountain, Southwestern, and Intermountain Regions, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Moscow, ID
                [11 ]School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
                [12 ]Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA
                [13 ]Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, Westborough, MA
                [14 ]Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
                [15 ]Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California–Davis, Davis, CA
                Author notes
                Article
                EPAPA1646486
                10.1002/fee.2189
                7787983
                33424494
                6f3ee91e-7ff6-422e-aa3e-4b52234afa6a

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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