Predictive Value of LACE Scores for Pediatric Readmissions

Abstract

Introduction

Hospital readmissions are recognized as a prevalent, yet potentially preventable, personal and economic burden. Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Comorbidities, and number of Emergency Department visits in the preceding 6 months can be quantified into one score, the LACE score. LACE scores have previously been identified to correlate with hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge, but research specific to the pediatric population is scant. The objective of the present study was to investigate if LACE scores, in addition to other factors, can be utilized to create a predictive pediatric hospital readmission model that may ultimately be used to decrease readmission rates.

Methods

This study included 25,616 hospitalizations of patients under the age of 18 years. Data were extracted from a hospital network electronic medical record. Demographics included LACE scores, age, gender, race/ethnicity, median household income, and medical centers. The primary exposure variable was LACE score. The main outcome measures were readmissions within 7, 14, and 30 days. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess the predictive capability of the regression model on patient 30-day admission.

Results

LACE scores, age, gender, race/ethnicity, median household income, and medical centers were examined in a multivariable model to assess patient risk of a 30-day readmission. Only age and LACE score were observed to be statistically significant. The AUC for the combined model was 0.69.

Discussion

As only age and LACE score were observed to be statistically significant and the AUC for the combined model was 0.69, this model is considered to have poor predictive capability.

Conclusions

In this study, LACE scores, as well the other factors, had a poor predictive capability for pediatric readmissions.