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      Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

      research-article
      1 , 2 , * , 3 , 1 , 4 , 5 , 5 , 3 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 1 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 9 , 10 , 19 , 5 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 5 , 29 , 7 , 23 , 30 , 23 , 7 , 30 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 21 , 14 , 14 , 5 , 30 , 33 , 34 , 7 , 30 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 20 , 31 , 38 , 39 , 31 , 10 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 21 , 44 , 45 , 23 , 23 , 46 , 5
      Science Advances
      American Association for the Advancement of Science
      biodiversity, biomass accumulation, carbon mitigation, ecology, forest regeneration, forest regrowth, secondary forests, tropical forests

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          Abstract

          Models reveal the high carbon mitigation potential of tropical forest regeneration.

          Abstract

          Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km 2 of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO 2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO 2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

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          Most cited references10

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          Land use. Cracking Brazil's Forest Code.

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            Environmental science: Agree on biodiversity metrics to track from space.

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              Geographic bias of field observations of soil carbon stocks with tropical land-use changes precludes spatial extrapolation.

              Accurately quantifying changes in soil carbon (C) stocks with land-use change is important for estimating the anthropogenic fluxes of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and for implementing policies such as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) that provide financial incentives to reduce carbon dioxide fluxes from deforestation and land degradation. Despite hundreds of field studies and at least a dozen literature reviews, there is still considerable disagreement on the direction and magnitude of changes in soil C stocks with land-use change. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified changes in soil C stocks with land use in the tropics. Conversion from one land use to another caused significant increases or decreases in soil C stocks for 8 of the 14 transitions examined. For the three land-use transitions with sufficient observations, both the direction and magnitude of the change in soil C pools depended strongly on biophysical factors of mean annual precipitation and dominant soil clay mineralogy. When we compared the distribution of biophysical conditions of the field observations to the area-weighted distribution of those factors in the tropics as a whole or the tropical lands that have undergone conversion, we found that field observations are highly unrepresentative of most tropical landscapes. Because of this geographic bias we strongly caution against extrapolating average values of land-cover change effects on soil C stocks, such as those generated through meta-analysis and literature reviews, to regions that differ in biophysical conditions.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                SciAdv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                May 2016
                13 May 2016
                : 2
                : 5
                : e1501639
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269–3043, USA.
                [2 ]International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, Rio de Janeiro, CEP 22460-320, Brazil.
                [3 ]Spatial Ecology and Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
                [4 ]Department of Biology, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada.
                [5 ]Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
                [6 ]Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico, P.O. Box 23360, San Juan, PR 00931-3360, Puerto Rico.
                [7 ]Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
                [8 ]Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
                [9 ]Department of Forest Sciences, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
                [10 ]SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.
                [11 ]German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
                [12 ]Institute for Biology, Leipzig University, Johannisallee 21, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
                [13 ]Departamento de Botânica-CCB, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Pernambuco, CEP 50670-901, Brazil.
                [14 ]Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
                [15 ]Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
                [16 ]Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.
                [17 ]Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
                [18 ]Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, 132 Long Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA.
                [19 ]Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán A.C. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130, Colonia Chuburná de Hidalgo, C.P. 97200, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
                [20 ]Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2EG, Canada.
                [21 ]Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
                [22 ]Fondo Patrimonio Natural para la Biodiversidad y Areas Protegidas, Calle 72 No. 12-65 piso 6, 110231 Bogota, Colombia.
                [23 ]Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
                [24 ]Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands.
                [25 ]Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands.
                [26 ]Coordenação de Tecnologia e Inovação, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Av. André Araújo 2936, Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus, Brazil.
                [27 ]Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, 1100 North Avenue, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA.
                [28 ]Department of Environmental Studies, Purchase College (SUNY), 735 Anderson Hill Road, Purchase, NY 10577, USA.
                [29 ]World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
                [30 ]Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
                [31 ]Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
                [32 ]Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark.
                [33 ]Centro de Formação em Ciências Agroflorestais, Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia, Itabuna-BA, 45613-204, Brazil.
                [34 ]Departments of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior and Plant Biology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
                [35 ]School of Social Sciences, Geography Area, Universidad Pedagogica y Tecnologica de Colombia, 150003 Tunja, Colombia.
                [36 ]Department of Geography, 4841 Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
                [37 ]Cr 5 No 14-05, P.O. Box 412, Cota, Cundinamarca, Colombia.
                [38 ]Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
                [39 ]Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
                [40 ]Yale-NUS College, 12 College Avenue West, Singapore 138610, Singapore.
                [41 ]Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore.
                [42 ]Departamento de Agricultura, Sociedad y Ambiente, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Villahermosa, 86280 Centro, Tabasco, México.
                [43 ]Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
                [44 ]Bonhoeffer College, Bruggertstraat 60, 7545 AX Enschede, Netherlands.
                [45 ]Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, C.P. 399, CEP 66040-170, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
                [46 ]Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803–1705, USA.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. Email: robin.chazdon@ 123456uconn.edu
                [†]

                Present address: National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, Periférico 5000, Col. Insurgentes Cuicuilco, Delegación Coyoacán, C.P. 04530, México.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4488-4237
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-6189
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5081-9936
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6408-6876
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3940-833X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7118-7090
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9804-7231
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9371-3269
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7491-6837
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3392-8089
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4761-9268
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3681-1705
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4842-8260
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9475-7674
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3959-1800
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6396-8244
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9434-0126
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3039-1076
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3328-7506
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2145-5728
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4136-4500
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8282-3005
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0376-8608
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7240-1899
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2778-7803
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2765-8596
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2692-0249
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9966-5229
                Article
                1501639
                10.1126/sciadv.1501639
                4928921
                27386528
                6c393cdb-c3c3-48d0-8789-f19b831de159
                Copyright © 2016, The Authors

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 13 November 2015
                : 12 April 2016
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: ID0EMSIM6645
                Award ID: 1147429
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: ID0EUYIM6646
                Award ID: 1313788
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: ID0E35IM6647
                Award ID: 1053237
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología;
                Award ID: ID0EDFJM6648
                Award ID: 255544
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología;
                Award ID: ID0E6NJM6649
                Award ID: 129740
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología;
                Award ID: ID0E2WJM6650
                Award ID: CB-2009-01-128136
                Award Recipient : http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6241-8803
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003593, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico;
                Award ID: ID0EA5JM6651
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FOMIX;
                Award ID: ID0EO6JM6652
                Award ID: YUC-2008-C06-108863
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Inter-American Institute for Global Change;
                Award ID: ID0EMGKM6653
                Award ID: Tropi-dry network CRN3-025
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004963, Seventh Framework Programme;
                Award ID: ID0EANKM6654
                Award ID: 283093
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
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                Abel Antonioc Belen

                biodiversity,biomass accumulation,carbon mitigation,ecology,forest regeneration,forest regrowth,secondary forests,tropical forests

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