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      Origin of the H1N1 (Russian influenza) pandemic of 1977—A risk assessment using the modified Grunow–Finke tool (mGFT)

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          Abstract

          In 1977, the Soviet Union (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR]) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of H1N1 influenza, which later spread to many countries. The H1N1 strain of 1977 reappeared after being absent from the world for over 20 years. This pandemic simultaneously spread to several cities in the USSR and China. Many theories have been postulated to account for the emergence of this pandemic, including natural and unnatural origins. The purpose of this study was to use the modified Grunow–Finke risk assessment tool (modified Grunow‐Finke tool [mGFT]) to investigate the origin of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic. Data was collected from WHO archives and published documents. The assessment of the pandemic's origin involved the utilization of a modified version of the original Grunow–Finke risk assessment tool (GFT). Using the mGFT, the final score was 37 out of 60 points (probability: 62%), indicating a high likelihood that the Russian influenza pandemic of 1977 was of unnatural origin. Several variables supported this finding, including the sudden re‐emergence of a previously extinct strain, a genetic signature of laboratory modification for vaccine development, and unusual epidemiology. Inter‐rater reliability was moderate to high. By applying the mGFT to the 1977 Russian influenza pandemic, we established a high probability that this pandemic was of unnatural origin. Although this is not definitive, it is consistent with the possibility that it originated from an incompletely attenuated live influenza vaccine. The mGFT is a useful risk analysis tool to evaluate the origin of epidemics.

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          Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

          Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1. Conclusions These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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            Influenza: old and new threats.

            Influenza remains an important disease in humans and animals. In contrast to measles, smallpox and poliomyelitis, influenza is caused by viruses that undergo continuous antigenic change and that possess an animal reservoir. Thus, new epidemics and pandemics are likely to occur in the future, and eradication of the disease will be difficult to achieve. Although it is not clear whether a new pandemic is imminent, it would be prudent to take into account the lessons we have learned from studying different human and animal influenza viruses. Specifically, reconstruction of the genes of the 1918 pandemic virus and studies on their contribution to virulence will be important steps toward understanding the biological capabilities of this lethal virus. Increasing the availability of new antiviral drugs and developing superior vaccines will provide us with better approaches to control influenza and to have a positive impact on disease load. A concern is that the imposition of new rules for working with infectious influenza viruses under high security and high containment conditions will stifle scientific progress. The complex questions of what makes an influenza virus transmissible from one human to another and from one species to another, as well as how the immune system interacts with the virus, will require the active collaboration and unencumbered work of many scientific groups.
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              Guillain-Barre syndrome following vaccination in the National Influenza Immunization Program, United States, 1976--1977.

              Because of an increase in the number of reports of Guillian-Barre syndrome (GBS) following A/New Jersey influenza vaccination, the National Influenza Immunization Program was suspended December 16, 1976 and nationwide surveillance for GBS was begun. This surveillance uncovered a total of 1098 patients with onset of GBS from October 1, 1976, to January 31, 1977, from all 50 states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. A total of 532 patients had recently received an A/New Jersey influenza vaccination prior to their onset of GBS (vaccinated cases), and 15 patients received a vaccination after their onset of GBS. Five hundred forty-three patients had not been recently vaccinated with A/New Jersey influenza vaccine and the vaccination status for 8 was unknown. Epidemiologic evidence indicated that many cases of GBS were related to vaccination. When compared to the unvaccinated population, the vaccinated population had a significantly elevated attack rate in every adult age group. The estimated attributable risk of vaccine-related GBS in the adult population was just under one case per 100,000 vaccinations. The period of increased risk was concentrated primarily within the 5-week period after vaccination, although it lasted for approximately 9 or 10 weeks.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Risk Analysis
                Risk Analysis
                Wiley
                0272-4332
                1539-6924
                June 09 2024
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Faculty of Medicine, School of Population Health University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [2 ] Faculty of Medicine, Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia
                [3 ] College of Public Service &amp; Community Solutions Arizona State University Tempe Arizona USA
                Article
                10.1111/risa.14343
                6c13388f-7799-4cf4-a791-7319c8a8ea88
                © 2024

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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