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      Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

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          Abstract

          Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

          Abstract

          Accurate forecasts of hurricane intensity remain problematic. Here, using an ocean observing network to inform ocean and atmospheric model simulations, the authors show that consideration of ahead-of-eye cooling improves intensity forecasts.

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          Diurnal cycling: Observations and models of the upper ocean response to diurnal heating, cooling, and wind mixing

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            Upper Ocean Response to a Hurricane

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              Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group
                2041-1723
                08 March 2016
                2016
                : 7
                : 10887
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University , 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA
                [2 ]State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University , 3663 Zhongshan Road North, Shanghai 200062, China
                [3 ]Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences , 7 Nanhai Road, Qingdao 266071, China
                Author notes
                Article
                ncomms10887
                10.1038/ncomms10887
                4786775
                26953963
                67273020-ed28-40f3-8838-788f3f751e38
                Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 21 May 2015
                : 29 January 2016
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