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      A Clinical Predictive Model of Central Lymph Node Metastases in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

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          Abstract

          Background

          Thyroid carcinoma is one of the most common endocrine tumors, and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common pathological type. Current studies have reported that PTC has a strong propensity for central lymph node metastases (CLNMs). Whether to prophylactically dissect the central lymph nodes in PTC remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the risk factors and develop a predictive model of CLNM in PTC.

          Methods

          A total of 2,554 patients were enrolled in this study. The basic information, laboratory examination, characteristics of cervical ultrasound, genetic test, and pathological diagnosis were collected. The collected data were analyzed by univariate logistic analysis and multivariate logistic analysis. The risk factors were evaluated, and the predictive model was constructed of CLNM.

          Results

          The multivariate logistic analysis showed that Age (p < 0.001), Gender (p < 0.001), Multifocality (p < 0.001), BRAF (p = 0.027), and Tumor size (p < 0.001) were associated with CLNM. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) showed high efficiency with an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.781 in the training group. The calibration curve and the calibration of the model were evaluated. The decision curve analysis (DCA) for the nomogram showed that the nomogram can provide benefits in this study.

          Conclusion

          The predictive model of CLNM constructed and visualized based on the evaluated risk factors was confirmed to be a practical and convenient tool for clinicians to predict the CLNM in PTC.

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          Most cited references26

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          mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations inR

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            Patient age is significantly related to the progression of papillary microcarcinoma of the thyroid under observation.

            We showed previously that subclinical low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) could be observed without immediate surgery. Patient age is an important prognostic factor of clinical papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). In this study, we investigated how patient age influences the observation of low-risk PTMC.
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              Estrogen and its role in thyroid cancer.

              Proliferative thyroid diseases are more prevalent in females than in males. Upon the onset of puberty, the incidence of thyroid cancer increases in females only and declines again after menopause. Estrogen is a potent growth factor both for benign and malignant thyroid cells that may explain the sex difference in the prevalence of thyroid nodules and thyroid cancer. It exerts its growth-promoting effect through a classical genomic and a non-genomic pathway, mediated via a membrane-bound estrogen receptor. This receptor is linked to the tyrosine kinase signaling pathways MAPK and PI3K. In papillary thyroid carcinomas, these pathways may be activated either by a chromosomal rearrangement of the tyrosine receptor kinase TRKA, by RET/PTC genes, or by a BRAF mutation and, in addition, in females they may be stimulated by high levels of estrogen. Furthermore, estrogen is involved in the regulation of angiogenesis and metastasis that are critical for the outcome of thyroid cancer. In contrast to other carcinomas, however, detailed knowledge on this regulation is still missing for thyroid cancer. © 2014 Society for Endocrinology.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Endocrinol (Lausanne)
                Front Endocrinol (Lausanne)
                Front. Endocrinol.
                Frontiers in Endocrinology
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-2392
                16 June 2022
                2022
                : 13
                : 856278
                Affiliations
                [1] 1 Department of Thyroid Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University , Zhengzhou, China
                [2] 2 Department of Dermatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University , Zhengzhou, China
                [3] 3 Engineering Research Center of Multidisciplinary Diagnosis and Treatment of Thyroid Cancer of Henan Province , Zhengzhou, China
                [4] 4 Key Medicine Laboratory of Thyroid Cancer of Henan Province , Zhengzhou, China
                Author notes

                Edited by: Terry Francis Davies, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, United States

                Reviewed by: Carolina Ferraz, Santa Casa of Sao Paulo, Brazil; Dorina Ylli, MedStar Health Research Institute (MHRI), United States

                *Correspondence: Detao Yin, detaoyin@ 123456zzu.edu.cn

                †These authors have contributed equally to this work and share first authorship

                This article was submitted to Thyroid Endocrinology, a section of the journal Frontiers in Endocrinology

                Article
                10.3389/fendo.2022.856278
                9243300
                35784530
                65d7fd3c-be4c-430c-a7a6-d1b1f62b2fa2
                Copyright © 2022 Wang, Chang, Zhang, Du, Li, Liu, Sun and Yin

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 17 January 2022
                : 10 May 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 3, Equations: 0, References: 26, Pages: 8, Words: 3129
                Categories
                Endocrinology
                Original Research

                Endocrinology & Diabetes
                papillary thyroid carcinoma (ptc),predictive model,central lymph node metastasis (clnm),nomogram,risk factors

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