Climate changes during the Late Glacial in southern Europe: new insights based on pollen and brGDGTs of Lake Matese in Italy

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Abstract

Abstract. The Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 cal BP) is a key climate period marked by rapid but contrasted changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Indeed, regional climate differences have been evidenced during the Late Glacial in Europe and the northern Mediterranean. However, past climate patterns are still debated since temperature and precipitation changes are poorly investigated towards the lower European latitudes. Lake Matese in southern Italy is a key site in the central Mediterranean to investigate climate patterns during the Late Glacial. This study aims to reconstruct climate changes and their impacts at Matese using a multi-proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, geochemistry (XRF core scanning), pollen data and molecular biomarkers like branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). Paleotemperatures and paleo-precipitation patterns are quantitatively inferred from pollen assemblages (multi-method approach: modern analogue technique, weighted averaging partial least-squares regression, random forest and boosted regression trees) and brGDGT calibrations. The results are compared to a latitudinal selection of regional climate reconstructions in Italy to better understand climate processes in Europe and in the circum-Mediterranean region. A warm Bølling–Allerød and a marked cold Younger Dryas are revealed in all climate reconstructions inferred from various proxies (chironomids, ostracods, speleothems, pollen, brGDGTs), showing no latitudinal differences in terms of temperatures across Italy. During the Bølling–Allerød, no significant changes in terms of precipitation are recorded; however, a contrasted pattern is visible during the Younger Dryas. Slightly wetter conditions are recorded south of 42∘ N, whereas dry conditions are recorded north of 42∘ N. During the Younger Dryas, cold conditions can be attributed to the southward position of North Atlantic sea ice and of the polar frontal jet stream, whereas the increase in precipitation in southern Italy seems to be linked to relocation of Atlantic storm tracks into the Mediterranean, induced by the Fennoscandian ice sheet and the North European Plain. By contrast, warm conditions during the Bølling–Allerød can be linked to the northward position of North Atlantic sea ice and of the polar frontal jet stream.

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THE INTCAL20 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVE (0–55 CAL kBP)

Paula J. Reimer, William E. N. Austin, Edouard Bard … (2020)

Radiocarbon ( 14 C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14 C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14 C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14 C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14 C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14 C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

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A working guide to boosted regression trees.

J Elith, J R Leathwick, T. Hastie (2008)

1. Ecologists use statistical models for both explanation and prediction, and need techniques that are flexible enough to express typical features of their data, such as nonlinearities and interactions. 2. This study provides a working guide to boosted regression trees (BRT), an ensemble method for fitting statistical models that differs fundamentally from conventional techniques that aim to fit a single parsimonious model. Boosted regression trees combine the strengths of two algorithms: regression trees (models that relate a response to their predictors by recursive binary splits) and boosting (an adaptive method for combining many simple models to give improved predictive performance). The final BRT model can be understood as an additive regression model in which individual terms are simple trees, fitted in a forward, stagewise fashion. 3. Boosted regression trees incorporate important advantages of tree-based methods, handling different types of predictor variables and accommodating missing data. They have no need for prior data transformation or elimination of outliers, can fit complex nonlinear relationships, and automatically handle interaction effects between predictors. Fitting multiple trees in BRT overcomes the biggest drawback of single tree models: their relatively poor predictive performance. Although BRT models are complex, they can be summarized in ways that give powerful ecological insight, and their predictive performance is superior to most traditional modelling methods. 4. The unique features of BRT raise a number of practical issues in model fitting. We demonstrate the practicalities and advantages of using BRT through a distributional analysis of the short-finned eel (Anguilla australis Richardson), a native freshwater fish of New Zealand. We use a data set of over 13 000 sites to illustrate effects of several settings, and then fit and interpret a model using a subset of the data. We provide code and a tutorial to enable the wider use of BRT by ecologists.