Reduced Rate of Inpatient Hospital Admissions in 18 German University Hospitals During the COVID-19 Lockdown

Background The COVID‐19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID‐19. Methods A global expert‐response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta‐regression model was used to estimate 12‐week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case‐mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case‐mix was applied to country‐level surgical volumes. The 12‐week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results The best estimate was that 28,404,603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID‐19 (2,367,050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25,638,922/28,404,603). The overall 12‐week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25,638,921/31,378,062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2,324,069/6,162,311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441,611/1,735,483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post‐pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID‐19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID‐19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

We conducted a nationwide retrospective survey on the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and treatment of acute cornary syndrome (ACS) from 2 to 29 March in Austria. Of the 19 public primary percutaneous coronary (PCI) centres contacted, 17 (90%) provided the number of admitted patients. During the study period, we observed a significant decline in the number of patients admitted to hospital due to ACS (Figure 1 ). Comparing the first and last calendar week, there was a relative reduction of 39.4% in admissions for ACS. In detail, from calendar week 10 to calendar week 13, the number of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients admitted to all hospitals was 94, 101, 89, and 70, respectively. The number of non-STEMI patients declined even more markedly from 132 to 110, to 62, and to 67. Figure 1 Decline of acute coronary syndrome admissions in Austria since the outbreak of COVID-19. The absolute numbers of all ACS (blue bars), STEMI (orange bars), and NSTEMI (grey bars) admissions in Austria from calendar week 10 to calendar week 13 are shown. Abbreviations: STEMI, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction; NSTEMI, non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The main finding of our retrospective observational study is an unexpected major decline in hospital admissions and thus treatment for all subtypes of ACS with the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Austria and subsequent large-scale public health measures such as social distancing, self-isolation, and quarantining. Several factors might explain this important observation. The rigorous public health measures, which are undoubtedly critical for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, may unintentionally affect established integrated care systems. Amongst others, patient-related factors could mean that infarct-related symptoms such as chest discomfort and dyspnoea could be misinterpreted as being related to an acute respiratory infection. Moreover, the strict instructions to stay at home as well as the fear of infection in a medical facility may have further prevented patients with an ACS from going to a hospital. Irrespective of the causes, the lower rate of admitted and therefore treated patients with ACS is worrisome and we are concerned that this might be accompanied by a substantial increase in early and late infarct-related morbidity and mortality. Our study does not provide data on mortality; however, considering the annual incidence of ACS in Austria (200/100 000/year = 17 600/year in 8.8 million habitants) 1 and taking into consideration sudden cardiac deaths and silent infarctions (one-third), there will remain ∼1000 ACS cases a month. The difference between the assumed number of ACS patients and the observed number in our study, i.e. 725 ACS patients in calendar weeks 10–13 is 275. According to these assumptions, 275 patients were not treated in March 2020. Based on data showing that the cardiovascular mortality of untreated ACS patients might be as high as 40% (as it was in the 1950s), 2 we can theoretically estimate 110 ACS deaths during this time frame. The number of deaths associated with this unintentional undersupply of guideline-directed ACS management is very alarming, particularly when considering that the official number of COVID-related deaths in Austria was 86 on 29 March. In conclusion, it seems likely that the COVID-19 outbreak is associated with a significantly lower rate of hospital admissions and thus, albeit unintended, treatment of ACS patients, which is most likely explained by several patient- and system-related factors. Every effort should be undertaken by the cardiology community to minimize the possible cardiac collateral damage caused by COVID-19.

Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) is one of seven projects sponsored by the NIH Roadmap National Centers for Biomedical Computing (http://www.ncbcs.org). Its mission is to provide clinical investigators with the tools necessary to integrate medical record and clinical research data in the genomics age, a software suite to construct and integrate the modern clinical research chart. i2b2 software may be used by an enterprise's research community to find sets of interesting patients from electronic patient medical record data, while preserving patient privacy through a query tool interface. Project-specific mini-databases ("data marts") can be created from these sets to make highly detailed data available on these specific patients to the investigators on the i2b2 platform, as reviewed and restricted by the Institutional Review Board. The current version of this software has been released into the public domain and is available at the URL: http://www.i2b2.org/software.