Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma based on the SEER database

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Abstract

Background

According to the latest classification of thyroid tumors released by the WHO in 2022, primary squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid (PSCCTh) is classified as anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC). The objective of this study was to determine the differences in characteristics between ATC and PSCCTh and develop a nomogram to predict overall survival patients with the redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (rATC).

Methods

Patients diagnosed with ATC and PSCCTh between 2000 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort with a ratio of 7:3. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors of rATC patients. We then developed and validated nomograms to predict the 3-, 6- and 12-month OS of rATC and the results were evaluated by C-index and calibration curves.

Results

After application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 1338 ATC and 127 PSCCTh patients were included in the study. Further, OS and CSS of patients with PSCCTh were better than that of patients with ATC. Prognostic factors were not identical for the two cancers. Multivariate Cox model analysis indicated that age, tumor size, metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy are independent prognostic factors for CSS in patients with ATC; while for patients with PSCCTh, the corresponding factors are age, and surgery. We selected six survival predictors (age, tumor size, metastasis, surgery, radiation, and, chemotherapy) for nomogram construction. The C-indexes in the training and validation cohort were 0.740 and 0.778, respectively, reflecting the good discrimination ability of the model. The calibration curves also showed good consistency in the probability of 3-, 6-, and 12-month OS between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction.

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram to provide a convenient and reliable tool for predicting OS in rATC patients. Prognostic factors influencing CSS were not identical in patients with ATC and PSCCTh. These findings indicate that different clinical treatment and management plans are required for patients with these two types of thyroid cancer.

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Most cited references 15

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Overview of the 2022 WHO Classification of Thyroid Neoplasms

Zubair Baloch, Sylvia L Asa, Justine A Barletta … (2022)

This review summarizes the changes in the 5th edition of the WHO Classification of Endocrine and Neuroendocrine Tumors that relate to the thyroid gland. The new classification has divided thyroid tumors into several new categories that allow for a clearer understanding of the cell of origin, pathologic features (cytopathology and histopathology), molecular classification, and biological behavior. Follicular cell-derived tumors constitute the majority of thyroid neoplasms. In this new classification, they are divided into benign, low-risk, and malignant neoplasms. Benign tumors include not only follicular adenoma but also variants of adenoma that are of diagnostic and clinical significance, including the ones with papillary architecture, which are often hyperfunctional and oncocytic adenomas. For the first time, there is a detailed account of the multifocal hyperplastic/neoplastic lesions that commonly occur in the clinical setting of multinodular goiter; the term thyroid follicular nodular disease (FND) achieved consensus as the best to describe this enigmatic entity. Low-risk follicular cell-derived neoplasms include non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP), thyroid tumors of uncertain malignant potential, and hyalinizing trabecular tumor. Malignant follicular cell-derived neoplasms are stratified based on molecular profiles and aggressiveness. Papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs), with many morphological subtypes, represent the BRAF-like malignancies, whereas invasive encapsulated follicular variant PTC and follicular thyroid carcinoma represent the RAS-like malignancies. This new classification requires detailed subtyping of papillary microcarcinomas similar to their counterparts that exceed 1.0 cm and recommends not designating them as a subtype of PTC. The criteria of the tall cell subtype of PTC have been revisited. Cribriform-morular thyroid carcinoma is no longer classified as a subtype of PTC. The term "Hürthle cell" is discouraged, since it is a misnomer. Oncocytic carcinoma is discussed as a distinct entity with the clear recognition that it refers to oncocytic follicular cell-derived neoplasms (composed of > 75% oncocytic cells) that lack characteristic nuclear features of PTC (those would be oncocytic PTCs) and high-grade features (necrosis and ≥ 5 mitoses per 2 mm2). High-grade follicular cell-derived malignancies now include both the traditional poorly differentiated carcinoma as well as high-grade differentiated thyroid carcinomas, since both are characterized by increased mitotic activity and tumor necrosis without anaplastic histology and clinically behave in a similar manner. Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma remains the most undifferentiated form; squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid is now considered as a subtype of anaplastic carcinoma. Medullary thyroid carcinomas derived from thyroid C cells retain their distinct section, and there is a separate section for mixed tumors composed of both C cells and any follicular cell-derived malignancy. A grading system for medullary thyroid carcinomas is also introduced based on mitotic count, tumor necrosis, and Ki67 labeling index. A number of unusual neoplasms that occur in the thyroid have been placed into new sections based on their cytogenesis. Mucoepidermoid carcinoma and secretory carcinoma of the salivary gland type are now included in one section classified as "salivary gland-type carcinomas of the thyroid." Thymomas, thymic carcinomas and spindle epithelial tumor with thymus-like elements are classified as "thymic tumors within the thyroid." There remain several tumors whose cell lineage is unclear, and they are listed as such; these include sclerosing mucoepidermoid carcinoma with eosinophilia and cribriform-morular thyroid carcinoma. Another important addition is thyroblastoma, an unusual embryonal tumor associated with DICER1 mutations. As in all the WHO books in the 5th edition, mesenchymal and stromal tumors, hematolymphoid neoplasms, germ cell tumors, and metastatic malignancies are discussed separately. The current classification also emphasizes the value of biomarkers that may aid diagnosis and provide prognostic information.

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2021 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Management of Patients with Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer: American Thyroid Association Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer Guidelines Task Force

Keith Bible, Electron Kebebew, James B. Brierley … (2021)

Background: Anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) is a rare but highly lethal form of thyroid cancer. Since the guidelines for the management of ATC by the American Thyroid Association were first published in 2012, significant clinical and scientific advances have occurred in the field. The aim of these guidelines is to inform clinicians, patients, and researchers on published evidence relating to the diagnosis and management of ATC. Methods: The specific clinical questions and topics addressed in these guidelines were based on prior versions of the guidelines, stakeholder input, and input of the Task Force members (authors of the guideline). Relevant literature was reviewed, including serial PubMed searches supplemented with additional articles. The American College of Physicians Guideline Grading System was used for critical appraisal of evidence and grading strength of recommendations. Results: The guidelines include the diagnosis, initial evaluation, establishment of treatment goals, approaches to locoregional disease (surgery, radiotherapy, targeted/systemic therapy, supportive care during active therapy), approaches to advanced/metastatic disease, palliative care options, surveillance and long-term monitoring, and ethical issues, including end of life. The guidelines include 31 recommendations and 16 good practice statements. Conclusions: We have developed evidence-based recommendations to inform clinical decision-making in the management of ATC. While all care must be individualized, such recommendations provide, in our opinion, optimal care paradigms for patients with ATC.

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American Thyroid Association guidelines for management of patients with anaplastic thyroid cancer.

Cynthia M Simbulan-Rosenthal, Gulzar Shah, Sylvia L Asa … (2012)

Anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) is a rare but highly lethal form of thyroid cancer. Rapid evaluation and establishment of treatment goals are imperative for optimum patient management and require a multidisciplinary team approach. Here we present guidelines for the management of ATC. The development of these guidelines was supported by the American Thyroid Association (ATA), which requested the authors, members the ATA Taskforce for ATC, to independently develop guidelines for ATC. Relevant literature was reviewed, including serial PubMed searches supplemented with additional articles. The quality and strength of recommendations were adapted from the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians, which in turn was developed by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation workshop. The guidelines include the diagnosis, initial evaluation, establishment of treatment goals, approaches to locoregional disease (surgery, radiotherapy, systemic therapy, supportive care during active therapy), approaches to advanced/metastatic disease, palliative care options, surveillance and long-term monitoring, and ethical issues including end of life. The guidelines include 65 recommendations. These are the first comprehensive guidelines for ATC and provide recommendations for management of this extremely aggressive malignancy. Patients with stage IVA/IVB resectable disease have the best prognosis, particularly if a multimodal approach (surgery, radiation, systemic therapy) is used, and some stage IVB unresectable patients may respond to aggressive therapy. Patients with stage IVC disease should be considered for a clinical trial or hospice/palliative care, depending upon their preference.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Chuyue Zhang:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0009-0003-2004-1790

zhangchuyue0215@163.com

Yan Yang: yang9601@163.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Int J Clin Oncol

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Int J Clin Oncol

Title: International Journal of Clinical Oncology

Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore (Singapore )

ISSN (Print): 1341-9625

ISSN (Electronic): 1437-7772

Publication date (Electronic): 7 April 2024

Publication date PMC-release: 7 April 2024

Publication date (Print): 2024

Volume: 29

Issue: 6

Pages: 744-754

Affiliations

Department of General Surgery, the 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLA, Kunming, Yunnan People’s Republic of China

Author information

Chuyue Zhang http://orcid.org/0009-0003-2004-1790

Article

Publisher ID: 2495

DOI: 10.1007/s10147-024-02495-2

PMC ID: 11129996

PubMed ID: 38584210

SO-VID: 5cb2ecc4-648c-4b7a-9bc3-5e399551aa42

License:

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

History

Date received : 3 October 2023

Date accepted : 20 February 2024

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Keywords: thyroid carcinoma,anaplastic,primary squamous cell carcinoma of thyroid,prognosis,risk,nomogram,seer program

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Keywords: thyroid carcinoma, anaplastic, primary squamous cell carcinoma of thyroid, prognosis, risk, nomogram, seer program

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Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma based on the SEER database

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Abstract

Background

Methods

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Conclusion

Related collections

Recursive Rule based Visual Categorization

Most cited references 15

Overview of the 2022 WHO Classification of Thyroid Neoplasms

2021 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Management of Patients with Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer: American Thyroid Association Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer Guidelines Task Force

American Thyroid Association guidelines for management of patients with anaplastic thyroid cancer.

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