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      Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

      , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
      Frontiers in Earth Science
      Frontiers Media SA

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          Abstract

          Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

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          Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards*

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            A Social Vulnerability Index for Disaster Management

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              A constitutive law for dense granular flows.

              A continuum description of granular flows would be of considerable help in predicting natural geophysical hazards or in designing industrial processes. However, the constitutive equations for dry granular flows, which govern how the material moves under shear, are still a matter of debate. One difficulty is that grains can behave like a solid (in a sand pile), a liquid (when poured from a silo) or a gas (when strongly agitated). For the two extreme regimes, constitutive equations have been proposed based on kinetic theory for collisional rapid flows, and soil mechanics for slow plastic flows. However, the intermediate dense regime, where the granular material flows like a liquid, still lacks a unified view and has motivated many studies over the past decade. The main characteristics of granular liquids are: a yield criterion (a critical shear stress below which flow is not possible) and a complex dependence on shear rate when flowing. In this sense, granular matter shares similarities with classical visco-plastic fluids such as Bingham fluids. Here we propose a new constitutive relation for dense granular flows, inspired by this analogy and recent numerical and experimental work. We then test our three-dimensional (3D) model through experiments on granular flows on a pile between rough sidewalls, in which a complex 3D flow pattern develops. We show that, without any fitting parameter, the model gives quantitative predictions for the flow shape and velocity profiles. Our results support the idea that a simple visco-plastic approach can quantitatively capture granular flow properties, and could serve as a basic tool for modelling more complex flows in geophysical or industrial applications.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Frontiers in Earth Science
                Front. Earth Sci.
                Frontiers Media SA
                2296-6463
                April 29 2021
                April 29 2021
                : 9
                Article
                10.3389/feart.2021.628772
                59f9d51d-f989-49f7-9099-6949831a1713
                © 2021

                Free to read

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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