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      Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death

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          Abstract

          The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its variants have devastated communities worldwide, and as the highly transmissible Omicron variant becomes the dominant strain of the virus in late 2021, the need to characterize and understand the difference between the new variant and its predecessors has been an increasing priority for public health authorities. Artificial Intelligence has played a significant role in the analysis of various facets of COVID-19 since the early stages of the pandemic. This study proposes the use of AI, specifically an XGBoost model, to quantify the impact of various medical risk factors (or “population features”) on the possibility of a patient outcome resulting in hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. The results are compared between the Delta and Omicron COVID-19 variants. Results indicated that older age and an unvaccinated patient status most consistently correspond as the most significant population features contributing to all three scenarios (hospitalization, ICU, death). The top 15 features for each variant-outcome scenario were determined, which most frequently included diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and complications of pneumonia as highly significant population features contributing to serious illness outcomes. The Delta/Hospitalization model returned the highest performance metric scores for the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), F1, and Recall, while Omicron/ICU and Omicron/Hospitalization had the highest accuracy and precision values, respectively. The recall was found to be above 0.60 in most cases (with only two exceptions), indicating that the total number of false positives was generally minimized (accounting for more of the people who would theoretically require medical care).

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          Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant

          Background A rapid increase in coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases due to the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in highly vaccinated populations has aroused concerns about the effectiveness of current vaccines. Methods We used a test-negative case–control design to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated after primary immunization with two doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca), or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine and after a booster dose of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or mRNA-1273. Results Between November 27, 2021, and January 12, 2022, a total of 886,774 eligible persons infected with the omicron variant, 204,154 eligible persons infected with the delta variant, and 1,572,621 eligible test-negative controls were identified. At all time points investigated and for all combinations of primary course and booster vaccines, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was higher for the delta variant than for the omicron variant. No effect against the omicron variant was noted from 20 weeks after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses, whereas vaccine effectiveness after two BNT162b2 doses was 65.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 63.9 to 67.0) at 2 to 4 weeks, dropping to 8.8% (95% CI, 7.0 to 10.5) at 25 or more weeks. Among ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness increased to 62.4% (95% CI, 61.8 to 63.0) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster before decreasing to 39.6% (95% CI, 38.0 to 41.1) at 10 or more weeks. Among BNT162b2 primary course recipients, vaccine effectiveness increased to 67.2% (95% CI, 66.5 to 67.8) at 2 to 4 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster before declining to 45.7% (95% CI, 44.7 to 46.7) at 10 or more weeks. Vaccine effectiveness after a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 primary course increased to 70.1% (95% CI, 69.5 to 70.7) at 2 to 4 weeks after an mRNA-1273 booster and decreased to 60.9% (95% CI, 59.7 to 62.1) at 5 to 9 weeks. After a BNT162b2 primary course, the mRNA-1273 booster increased vaccine effectiveness to 73.9% (95% CI, 73.1 to 74.6) at 2 to 4 weeks; vaccine effectiveness fell to 64.4% (95% CI, 62.6 to 66.1) at 5 to 9 weeks. Conclusions Primary immunization with two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 vaccine provided limited protection against symptomatic disease caused by the omicron variant. A BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster after either the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 primary course substantially increased protection, but that protection waned over time. (Funded by the U.K. Health Security Agency.)
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            Artificial Intelligence Distinguishes COVID-19 from Community Acquired Pneumonia on Chest CT

            Background Coronavirus disease has widely spread all over the world since the beginning of 2020. It is desirable to develop automatic and accurate detection of COVID-19 using chest CT. Purpose To develop a fully automatic framework to detect COVID-19 using chest CT and evaluate its performances. Materials and Methods In this retrospective and multi-center study, a deep learning model, COVID-19 detection neural network (COVNet), was developed to extract visual features from volumetric chest CT exams for the detection of COVID-19. Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) and other non-pneumonia CT exams were included to test the robustness of the model. The datasets were collected from 6 hospitals between August 2016 and February 2020. Diagnostic performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. Results The collected dataset consisted of 4356 chest CT exams from 3,322 patients. The average age is 49±15 years and there were slightly more male patients than female (1838 vs 1484; p-value=0.29). The per-exam sensitivity and specificity for detecting COVID-19 in the independent test set was 114 of 127 (90% [95% CI: 83%, 94%]) and 294 of 307 (96% [95% CI: 93%, 98%]), respectively, with an AUC of 0.96 (p-value<0.001). The per-exam sensitivity and specificity for detecting CAP in the independent test set was 87% (152 of 175) and 92% (239 of 259), respectively, with an AUC of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.97). Conclusions A deep learning model can accurately detect COVID-19 and differentiate it from community acquired pneumonia and other lung diseases.
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              Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications for COVID-19 pandemic

              Background and aims Healthcare delivery requires the support of new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data and Machine Learning to fight and look ahead against the new diseases. We aim to review the role of AI as a decisive technology to analyze, prepare us for prevention and fight with COVID-19 (Coronavirus) and other pandemics. Methods The rapid review of the literature is done on the database of Pubmed, Scopus and Google Scholar using the keyword of COVID-19 or Coronavirus and Artificial Intelligence or AI. Collected the latest information regarding AI for COVID-19, then analyzed the same to identify its possible application for this disease. Results We have identified seven significant applications of AI for COVID-19 pandemic. This technology plays an important role to detect the cluster of cases and to predict where this virus will affect in future by collecting and analyzing all previous data. Conclusions Healthcare organizations are in an urgent need for decision-making technologies to handle this virus and help them in getting proper suggestions in real-time to avoid its spread. AI works in a proficient way to mimic like human intelligence. It may also play a vital role in understanding and suggesting the development of a vaccine for COVID-19. This result-driven technology is used for proper screening, analyzing, prediction and tracking of current patients and likely future patients. The significant applications are applied to tracks data of confirmed, recovered and death cases.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Artif Intell
                Front Artif Intell
                Front. Artif. Intell.
                Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2624-8212
                30 November 2022
                2022
                30 November 2022
                : 5
                : 927203
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Department of Mechanical Engineering, McMaster University , Hamilton, ON, Canada
                [2] 2School of Engineering, University of Guelph , Guelph, ON, Canada
                [3] 3College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, United Kingdom
                [4] 4Adastra Corporation , Toronto, ON, Canada
                Author notes

                Edited by: Tuan D. Pham, Prince Mohammad bin Fahd University, Saudi Arabia

                Reviewed by: Sunyoung Jang, Princeton Radiation Oncology Center, United States; Dinh Tuan Phan Le, New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation, United States

                *Correspondence: Michael G. Chislett chislett@ 123456uoguelph.ca

                This article was submitted to Medicine and Public Health, a section of the journal Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence

                Article
                10.3389/frai.2022.927203
                9748260
                36530359
                5849cf77-2943-4a4b-b19a-a6a23c2283b5
                Copyright © 2022 Hilal, Chislett, Snider, McBean, Yawney and Gadsden.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 24 April 2022
                : 07 November 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 9, Tables: 4, Equations: 1, References: 31, Pages: 16, Words: 8694
                Funding
                Funded by: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, doi 10.13039/501100000038;
                Award ID: 400677
                Award ID: 401636
                Award ID: 401641
                Funded by: University of Guelph, doi 10.13039/100008986;
                Award ID: Research Leadership Chairs Program
                Categories
                Artificial Intelligence
                Original Research

                covid-19,delta variant,healthcare,hospitalization,medical risk factors,omicron variant,xgboost

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