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Abstract
Background
The purpose of this article is to explore the claims often cited in scientific journals
regarding the golden ratio, and its proposed link to beauty and idealized forms in
nature, including idealized human proportions.
Main body
Claims made in the nineteenth century through to the modern day in the clinical literature
do not appear to be supported by evidence.
Short conclusions
There is no convincing evidence that the golden ratio is linked to idealized human
proportions or facial beauty. There is currently no evidence to support the use of
the golden ratio in orthognathic or facial aesthetic/reconstructive surgical planning
or analysis of results.
Newly discovered true (non-null) associations often have inflated effects compared with the true effect sizes. I discuss here the main reasons for this inflation. First, theoretical considerations prove that when true discovery is claimed based on crossing a threshold of statistical significance and the discovery study is underpowered, the observed effects are expected to be inflated. This has been demonstrated in various fields ranging from early stopped clinical trials to genome-wide associations. Second, flexible analyses coupled with selective reporting may inflate the published discovered effects. The vibration ratio (the ratio of the largest vs. smallest effect on the same association approached with different analytic choices) can be very large. Third, effects may be inflated at the stage of interpretation due to diverse conflicts of interest. Discovered effects are not always inflated, and under some circumstances may be deflated-for example, in the setting of late discovery of associations in sequentially accumulated overpowered evidence, in some types of misclassification from measurement error, and in conflicts causing reverse biases. Finally, I discuss potential approaches to this problem. These include being cautious about newly discovered effect sizes, considering some rational down-adjustment, using analytical methods that correct for the anticipated inflation, ignoring the magnitude of the effect (if not necessary), conducting large studies in the discovery phase, using strict protocols for analyses, pursuing complete and transparent reporting of all results, placing emphasis on replication, and being fair with interpretation of results.
The ability to self-correct is considered a hallmark of science. However, self-correction does not always happen to scientific evidence by default. The trajectory of scientific credibility can fluctuate over time, both for defined scientific fields and for science at-large. History suggests that major catastrophes in scientific credibility are unfortunately possible and the argument that "it is obvious that progress is made" is weak. Careful evaluation of the current status of credibility of various scientific fields is important in order to understand any credibility deficits and how one could obtain and establish more trustworthy results. Efficient and unbiased replication mechanisms are essential for maintaining high levels of scientific credibility. Depending on the types of results obtained in the discovery and replication phases, there are different paradigms of research: optimal, self-correcting, false nonreplication, and perpetuated fallacy. In the absence of replication efforts, one is left with unconfirmed (genuine) discoveries and unchallenged fallacies. In several fields of investigation, including many areas of psychological science, perpetuated and unchallenged fallacies may comprise the majority of the circulating evidence. I catalogue a number of impediments to self-correction that have been empirically studied in psychological science. Finally, I discuss some proposed solutions to promote sound replication practices enhancing the credibility of scientific results as well as some potential disadvantages of each of them. Any deviation from the principle that seeking the truth has priority over any other goals may be seriously damaging to the self-correcting functions of science.
Journal ID (nlm-ta): Maxillofac Plast Reconstr Surg
Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Maxillofac Plast Reconstr Surg
Title:
Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
Publisher:
Springer Nature Singapore
(Singapore
)
ISSN
(Print):
2288-8101
ISSN
(Electronic):
2288-8586
Publication date
(Electronic):
17
January
2024
Publication date PMC-release: 17
January
2024
Publication date Collection:
December
2024
Volume: 46
Issue: 1
Electronic Location Identifier: 2
Affiliations
Kingston Hospital and Queen Mary’s Hospital, King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation
Trust, (
https://ror.org/01n0k5m85)
Galsworthy Road, London, KT2 7QB UK
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