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      Climate Change and Small Island Developing States

      Author(s): 1 , 2 , 3 , 1 , 1 , 4
      Publication date Created:
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      Journal: Annual Review of Environment and Resources
      Publisher: Annual Reviews

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          Abstract

          Despite their heterogeneity, small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as being particularly at risk to climate change, and, as they share numerous common traits, the United Nations recognizes them as a special group. SIDS have been quite vocal in calling attention to the challenges they face from climate change and advocating for greater international ambition to limit global warming. Here, we unpack factors that are helpful in understanding the relationship between climate change and SIDS through a review of studies that span disciplines and methodologies. We assess patterns of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability; impacts and risks; awareness and knowledge; adaptation planning and implementation; mitigation; loss and damage; and climate justice to provide an overarching review of literature on climate change and SIDS.

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          Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

          Malte Meinshausen, Nicolai Meinshausen, William Hare … (2009)
          More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.
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            Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?

            W Adger, Suraje Dessai, Marisa Goulden … (2009)
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              Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

              Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne … (2016)
              The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Annual Review of Environment and Resources
                Abbreviated Title: Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.
                Publisher: Annual Reviews
                ISSN (Print): 1543-5938
                ISSN (Electronic): 1545-2050
                Publication date Created: October 17 2020
                Publication date (Print): October 17 2020
                Volume: 45
                Issue: 1
                Pages: 1-27
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany;, ,
                [2 ]Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Research Centre, University of The Bahamas, Nassau 4912, The Bahamas
                [3 ]Environmental Studies, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York 13346, USA;
                [4 ]Department of Geography, School of Arts and Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854, USA;
                Article
                DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083355
                SO-VID: 559d1627-4b43-4d89-afbf-d831dc070e39
                Copyright © © 2020
                License:

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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