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      Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology)

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          Abstract

          The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

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          The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones

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            Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise.

            Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.
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              The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                29 November 2017
                2017
                : 12
                : 11
                : e0188142
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America
                [2 ] Department of Anthropology, Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, Kentucky, United States of America
                [3 ] Department of Anthropology, Indiana University South Bend, South Bend, Indiana, United States of America
                [4 ] The Alexandria Archive Institute/Open Context, San Francisco, California, United States of America
                [5 ] Department of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
                [6 ] Geographic Information Science and Technology Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, United States of America
                University at Buffalo - The State University of New York, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                ‡ These authors also contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5263-5118
                Article
                PONE-D-17-28250
                10.1371/journal.pone.0188142
                5706671
                29186200
                53391e69-eb90-4cac-b5d1-da9dee5cd4c7

                This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

                History
                : 28 July 2017
                : 1 November 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 5, Pages: 25
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: Awards Number 1217240, 1623621
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: 1216810, 1623644
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000208, Institute of Museum and Library Services;
                Award ID: LG-70-16-0056-16
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000208, Institute of Museum and Library Services;
                Award ID: LG-70-16-0056-16
                Award Recipient :
                The development of DINAA is funded by the National Science Foundation (Awards Numbers NSF 1217240, 1623621, 1216810, 1623644), and the Institute of Museum and Library Services (Award #LG-70-16-0056-16). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Social Sciences
                Archaeology
                Social Sciences
                Archaeology
                Historical Archaeology
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Culture
                Cultural Resources
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                North America
                United States
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Data Management
                Earth Sciences
                Marine and Aquatic Sciences
                Oceanography
                Sea Level Change
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Culture
                Custom metadata
                Primary locational data for the archaeological sites used in this study is available from the site file managers of the states examined herein. These include: Georgia SHPO; Virginia Department of Historic Resources (VA-DHR); Florida Department of State, Division of Historical Resources (FDOS-DHR); South Carolina Institute of Archaeology and Anthropology (SCIAA); University of Alabama’s Office of Archaeological Research (OAR); Louisiana Office of Cultural Development, Division of Archaeology; Maryland Historical Trust; and the North Carolina Office of State Archaeology (OSA). The Coastal State Site Data for Sea-Level Rise Modeling. 2017 From Georgia Archaeological Site File (GASF), Virginia Site Files, Florida Site Files, South Carolina SHPO, Alabama Site Files, Louisiana Site Files, Maryland Site Files, North Carolina Site Files. Edited or directed by: David G. Anderson, Joshua Wells, Stephen Yerka, Sarah Whitcher Kansa, Eric C. Kansa. Released: 2017-03-01. Open Context. Available from: http://opencontext.org/tables/0c14c4ad-fce9-4291-a605-8c065d347c5d DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6078/M7ST7MRR.

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