Performance of a Multigene Genomic Classifier in Thyroid Nodules With Indeterminate Cytology : A Prospective Blinded Multicenter Study

Key Points

Question

Can the diagnosis of benign disease or cancer in thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology be established by molecular testing instead of diagnostic surgery?

Findings

This prospective, blinded, multicenter cohort study of a multigene genomic classifier (ThyroSeq v3) test included 257 indeterminate cytology thyroid nodules with informative test results. It demonstrated a high sensitivity (94%) and reasonably high specificity (82%), with 61% of the nodules yielding a negative test result and only 3% residual cancer risk in these nodules.

Meanings

Up to 61% of patients with indeterminate cytology thyroid nodules may avoid diagnostic surgery by undergoing multigene genomic classifier testing.

Abstract

This prospective study examines the diagnostic accuracy of a multigene genomic classifier test for diagnosis of benign disease or cancer in thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology.

Abstract

Importance

Approximately 20% of fine-needle aspirations (FNA) of thyroid nodules have indeterminate cytology, most frequently Bethesda category III or IV. Diagnostic surgeries can be avoided for these patients if the nodules are reliably diagnosed as benign without surgery.

Objective

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of a multigene classifier (GC) test (ThyroSeq v3) for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective, blinded cohort study conducted at 10 medical centers, with 782 patients with 1013 nodules enrolled. Eligibility criteria were met in 256 patients with 286 nodules; central pathology review was performed on 274 nodules.

Interventions

A total of 286 FNA samples from thyroid nodules underwent molecular analysis using the multigene GC (ThyroSeq v3).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy of the test for thyroid nodules with Bethesda III and IV cytology. The secondary outcome was prediction of cancer by specific genetic alterations in Bethesda III to V nodules.

Results

Of the 286 cytologically indeterminate nodules, 206 (72%) were benign, 69 (24%) malignant, and 11 (4%) noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclei (NIFTP). A total of 257 (90%) nodules (154 Bethesda III, 93 Bethesda IV, and 10 Bethesda V) had informative GC analysis, with 61% classified as negative and 39% as positive. In Bethesda III and IV nodules combined, the test demonstrated a 94% (95% CI, 86%-98%) sensitivity and 82% (95% CI, 75%-87%) specificity. With a cancer/NIFTP prevalence of 28%, the negative predictive value (NPV) was 97% (95% CI, 93%-99%) and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 66% (95% CI, 56%-75%). The observed 3% false-negative rate was similar to that of benign cytology, and the missed cancers were all low-risk tumors. Among nodules testing positive, specific groups of genetic alterations had cancer probabilities varying from 59% to 100%.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prospective, blinded, multicenter study, the multigene GC test demonstrated a high sensitivity/NPV and reasonably high specificity/PPV, which may obviate diagnostic surgery in up to 61% of patients with Bethesda III to IV indeterminate nodules, and up to 82% of all benign nodules with indeterminate cytology. Information on specific genetic alterations obtained from FNA may help inform individualized treatment of patients with a positive test result.