Cause of kidney disease and cardiovascular events in a national cohort of US patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis: a retrospective analysis

A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks. Despite this, it is not uncommon to see the complement of the Kaplan-Meier estimate used in this setting and interpreted as the probability of failure. If one desires an estimate that can be interpreted in this way, however, the cumulative incidence estimate is the appropriate tool to use in such situations. We believe the more commonly seen representations of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the cumulative incidence estimate do not lend themselves to easy explanation and understanding of this interpretation. We present, therefore, a representation of each estimate in a manner not ordinarily seen, each representation utilizing the concept of censored observations being 'redistributed to the right.' We feel these allow a more intuitive understanding of each estimate and therefore an appreciation of why the Kaplan-Meier method is inappropriate for estimation purposes in the presence of competing risks, while the cumulative incidence estimate is appropriate.

The Nephrotic Syndrome Study Network (NEPTUNE) is a North American multi-center collaborative consortium established to develop a translational research infrastructure for Nephrotic Syndrome. This includes a longitudinal observational cohort study, a pilot and ancillary studies program, a training program, and a patient contact registry. NEPTUNE will enroll 450 adults and children with minimal change disease, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and membranous nephropathy for detailed clinical, histopathologic, and molecular phenotyping at the time of clinically-indicated renal biopsy. Initial visits will include an extensive clinical history, physical examination, collection of urine, blood and renal tissue samples, and assessments of quality of life and patient-reported outcomes. Follow-up history, physical measures, urine and blood samples, and questionnaires will be obtained every 4 months in the first year and bi-annually, thereafter. Molecular profiles and gene expression data will be linked to phenotypic, genetic, and digitalized histologic data for comprehensive analyses using systems biology approaches. Analytical strategies were designed to transform descriptive information to mechanistic disease classification for Nephrotic Syndrome and to identify clinical, histological, and genomic disease predictors. Thus, understanding the complexity of the disease pathogenesis will guide further investigation for targeted therapeutic strategies.

No data are available on the absolute risk of either venous thromboembolism (VTE) or arterial thromboembolism (ATE) in patients with nephrotic syndrome. Reported risks are based on multiple case reports and small studies with mostly short-term follow-up. We assessed the absolute risk of VTE and ATE in a large, single-center, retrospective cohort study and attempted to identify predictive factors in these patients. A total of 298 consecutive patients with nephrotic syndrome (59% men; mean age, 42+/-18 years) were enrolled. Mean follow-up was 10+/-9 years. Nephrotic syndrome was defined by proteinuria > or =3.5 g/d, and patients were classified according to underlying histological lesions accounting for nephrotic syndrome. Objectively verified symptomatic thromboembolic events were the primary study outcome. Annual incidences of VTE and ATE were 1.02% (95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.46) and 1.48% (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.99), respectively. Over the first 6 months of follow-up, these rates were 9.85% and 5.52%, respectively. Proteinuria and serum albumin levels tended to be related to VTE; however, only the predictive value of the ratio of proteinuria to serum albumin was significant (hazard ratio, 5.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 26.2; P=0.03). In contrast, neither the degree of proteinuria nor serum albumin levels were related to ATE. Sex, age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, prior ATE, and estimated glomerular filtration rate predicted ATE (P< or =0.02). This study verifies high absolute risks of symptomatic VTE and ATE that were remarkably elevated within the first 6 months. Whereas the ratio of proteinuria to serum albumin predicted VTE, estimated glomerular filtration rate and multiple classic risk factors for atherosclerosis were predictors of ATE.