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      Respiratory symptoms and disease characteristics as predictors of pulmonary function abnormalities in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: an observational cohort study

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Lung involvement is a common extra-articular manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that confers significant morbidity and mortality. The objective of the present study is to assess which respiratory symptoms and patient and disease characteristics are most highly associated with pulmonary function test (PFT) abnormalities in an RA patient cohort without clinical cardiovascular disease.

          Methods

          A total of 159 individuals with RA and without clinically evident cardiovascular disease were evaluated. Respiratory symptoms were assessed with the Lung Tissue Research Consortium questionnaire and all patients underwent evaluation with PFTs. Demographic, lifestyle, RA disease and treatment characteristics were collected. Subclinical coronary artery disease was assessed by cardiac computed tomography. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify pulmonary symptoms and nonpulmonary parameters associated with PFT abnormalities. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the discrimination of these variables for identifying patients with PFT abnormalities.

          Results

          Respiratory symptoms were reported by 42% of the patient population. Although only 6% carried a prior diagnosis of lung disease, PFT abnormalities were identified in 28% of the subjects. Symptoms combined with other patient and RA characteristics (body mass index, current smoking, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies, and current prednisone use) performed satisfactorily in predicting the PFT abnormalities of obstruction (AUC = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.78 to 0.98), restriction (AUC = 0.79, 95% confidence interval = 0.75 to 0.93) and impaired diffusion (AUC = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.59 to 0.92). Co-morbid subclinical coronary artery disease did not modify these relationships.

          Conclusions

          Assessment of respiratory symptoms along with a limited number of clinical parameters may serve as a useful and inexpensive clinical tool for identifying RA patients in need of further pulmonary investigation.

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          Most cited references36

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          The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

          A representation and interpretation of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve obtained by the "rating" method, or by mathematical predictions based on patient characteristics, is presented. It is shown that in such a setting the area represents the probability that a randomly chosen diseased subject is (correctly) rated or ranked with greater suspicion than a randomly chosen non-diseased subject. Moreover, this probability of a correct ranking is the same quantity that is estimated by the already well-studied nonparametric Wilcoxon statistic. These two relationships are exploited to (a) provide rapid closed-form expressions for the approximate magnitude of the sampling variability, i.e., standard error that one uses to accompany the area under a smoothed ROC curve, (b) guide in determining the size of the sample required to provide a sufficiently reliable estimate of this area, and (c) determine how large sample sizes should be to ensure that one can statistically detect differences in the accuracy of diagnostic techniques.
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            The American Rheumatism Association 1987 revised criteria for the classification of rheumatoid arthritis.

            The revised criteria for the classification of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were formulated from a computerized analysis of 262 contemporary, consecutively studied patients with RA and 262 control subjects with rheumatic diseases other than RA (non-RA). The new criteria are as follows: 1) morning stiffness in and around joints lasting at least 1 hour before maximal improvement; 2) soft tissue swelling (arthritis) of 3 or more joint areas observed by a physician; 3) swelling (arthritis) of the proximal interphalangeal, metacarpophalangeal, or wrist joints; 4) symmetric swelling (arthritis); 5) rheumatoid nodules; 6) the presence of rheumatoid factor; and 7) radiographic erosions and/or periarticular osteopenia in hand and/or wrist joints. Criteria 1 through 4 must have been present for at least 6 weeks. Rheumatoid arthritis is defined by the presence of 4 or more criteria, and no further qualifications (classic, definite, or probable) or list of exclusions are required. In addition, a "classification tree" schema is presented which performs equally as well as the traditional (4 of 7) format. The new criteria demonstrated 91-94% sensitivity and 89% specificity for RA when compared with non-RA rheumatic disease control subjects.
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              Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis.

              The performance of a predictive model is overestimated when simply determined on the sample of subjects that was used to construct the model. Several internal validation methods are available that aim to provide a more accurate estimate of model performance in new subjects. We evaluated several variants of split-sample, cross-validation and bootstrapping methods with a logistic regression model that included eight predictors for 30-day mortality after an acute myocardial infarction. Random samples with a size between n = 572 and n = 9165 were drawn from a large data set (GUSTO-I; n = 40,830; 2851 deaths) to reflect modeling in data sets with between 5 and 80 events per variable. Independent performance was determined on the remaining subjects. Performance measures included discriminative ability, calibration and overall accuracy. We found that split-sample analyses gave overly pessimistic estimates of performance, with large variability. Cross-validation on 10% of the sample had low bias and low variability, but was not suitable for all performance measures. Internal validity could best be estimated with bootstrapping, which provided stable estimates with low bias. We conclude that split-sample validation is inefficient, and recommend bootstrapping for estimation of internal validity of a predictive logistic regression model.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Arthritis Res Ther
                Arthritis Research & Therapy
                BioMed Central
                1478-6354
                1478-6362
                2010
                27 May 2010
                : 12
                : 3
                : R104
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, 1830 E. Monument Street, 5th Floor, Baltimore, MD 21202, USA
                Article
                ar3037
                10.1186/ar3037
                2911894
                20507627
                4a8e9ae4-a7a3-4a5b-be40-6f5a61955cba
                Copyright ©2010 Pappas et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 15 January 2010
                : 14 April 2010
                : 27 May 2010
                Categories
                Research Article

                Orthopedics
                Orthopedics

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