Will Climate Change Affect the Disease Progression of Septoria Tritici Blotch in Northern Europe?

Abstract

Septoria tritici blotch (STB), caused by the fungus Zymoseptoria tritici Desm., is the most important disease affecting wheat in Northern Europe. There is a strong correlation between STB and weather variables; therefore, research on climate change and epidemiology is essential. In a long-term survey across 25 years, we evaluated the epidemiological development of STB at a representative location under maritime climatic conditions. The surveys conducted between 1996 and 2021 showed an increase in disease severity of STB with respect to time. At the survey location, the plants were also evaluated for other diseases, but other foliar diseases were only observed with negligible severities. However, a continuous increase in the severity of STB was observed throughout the survey. During the survey period, there was no significant relationship between disease severity and single weather parameters (e.g., temperature and precipitation). However, seasonal changes in the progression of conducive STB conditions within the season were observed during the survey. Therefore, STB infections occurred at increased temperatures due to infections later during the growth season. In general, the distribution of conducive weather conditions, which supports an infection, determines the epidemiological behaviour of STB during the growing season. Due to these enhanced STB epidemics, a decline in wheat production has been observed, especially in agronomic practices of maritime climates. This is particularly the case if temperature and precipitation during the growing season are affected by climate change.