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      Do Not Stay at Home: We Are Ready for You

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          Abstract

          Lessons learned from a Covid-19 hot spot in Germany regarding dread risk and drop in Emergency Room volume.

          Summary

          A major regional hospital — RoMed in Rosenheim, Germany — has seen a disturbing decline in the number of non-Covid-19 patients presenting for emergency care. While there may be value in reducing elective medical treatments during the coronavirus pandemic, emergency care is essential for patients with severe heart problems, appendicitis, paralytic ileus, or advanced cancer. Patients and physicians alike must not hesitate to seek or direct care in such cases, where delay will lead to preventable adverse outcomes, including death.

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          The Untold Toll — The Pandemic’s Effects on Patients without Covid-19

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            Dread risk, September 11, and fatal traffic accidents.

            People tend to fear dread risks, that is, low-probability, high-consequence events, such as the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. If Americans avoided the dread risk of flying after the attack and instead drove some of the unflown miles, one would expect an increase in traffic fatalities. This hypothesis was tested by analyzing data from the U.S. Department of Transportation for the 3 months following September 11. The analysis suggests that the number of Americans who lost their lives on the road by avoiding the risk of flying was higher than the total number of passengers killed on the four fatal flights. I conclude that informing the public about psychological research concerning dread risks could possibly save lives.
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              Out of the frying pan into the fire: behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks.

              A low-probability, high-damage event in which many people are killed at one point of time is called a dread risk. Dread risks can cause direct damage and, in addition, indirect damage mediated though the minds of citizens. I analyze the behavioral reactions of Americans to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and provide evidence for the dread hypothesis: (i) Americans reduced their air travel after the attack; (ii) for a period of one year following the attacks, interstate highway travel increased, suggesting that a proportion of those who did not fly instead drove to their destination; and (iii) for the same period, in each month the number of fatal highway crashes exceeded the base line of the previous years. An estimated 1,500 Americans died on the road in the attempt to avoid the fate of the passengers who were killed in the four fatal flights.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                NEJM Catal Innov Care Deliv
                NEJM Catal Innov Care Deliv
                cat-non-issue
                Nejm Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery
                Massachusetts Medical Society
                2642-0007
                05 May 2020
                : 10.1056/CAT.20.0146
                Affiliations
                [1]Chief Executive Officer, RoMed, Rosenheim, Germany; Member, Editorial Board, NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery;
                [2]Chief Medical Officer, RoMed, Rosenheim, Germany;
                Article
                CAT.20.0146
                10.1056/CAT.20.0146
                7371308
                4608ea2f-3dfa-4a47-94c3-67e54a7c0725
                Copyright ©2020 Massachusetts Medical Society.

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use, except commercial resale, and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgment of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the Covid-19 pandemic or until revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, subject to existing copyright protections.

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