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      Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake

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          Abstract

          Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and offset a large fraction of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink is increasing, yet the mechanisms responsible for its enhancement, and implications for the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, remain unclear. Here using global carbon budget estimates, ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple global vegetation models, we report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2, and a decline in the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remain in the atmosphere, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. We attribute the observed decline to increases in the terrestrial sink during the past decade, associated with the effects of rising atmospheric CO 2 on vegetation and the slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration. The pause in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate provides further evidence of the roles of CO 2 fertilization and warming-induced respiration, and highlights the need to protect both existing carbon stocks and regions, where the sink is growing rapidly.

          Abstract

          Year-to-year variability in atmospheric CO 2 is strongly influenced by the terrestrial biosphere. Despite increasing anthropogenic emissions, Keenan et al. report a recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 using observations and vegetation models, attributed to an enhanced terrestrial carbon sink.

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          A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C 3 species.

          Various aspects of the biochemistry of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants are integrated into a form compatible with studies of gas exchange in leaves. These aspects include the kinetic properties of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase; the requirements of the photosynthetic carbon reduction and photorespiratory carbon oxidation cycles for reduced pyridine nucleotides; the dependence of electron transport on photon flux and the presence of a temperature dependent upper limit to electron transport. The measurements of gas exchange with which the model outputs may be compared include those of the temperature and partial pressure of CO2(p(CO2)) dependencies of quantum yield, the variation of compensation point with temperature and partial pressure of O2(p(O2)), the dependence of net CO2 assimilation rate on p(CO2) and irradiance, and the influence of p(CO2) and irradiance on the temperature dependence of assimilation rate.
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            Detecting strange attractors in turbulence

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              Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

              More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group
                2041-1723
                08 November 2016
                2016
                : 7
                : 13428
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab , Berkeley, California 94709, USA
                [2 ]Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University , Sydney, New South Wales 2109, Australia
                [3 ]Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus , Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
                [4 ]Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere , Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
                [5 ]Department of Biology, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University , Worcester, Massachusetts 01610, USA
                [6 ]State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Forestry, Northwest A & F University , Yangling 712100, China
                [7 ]Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center , Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
                Author notes
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3347-0258
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2482-1818
                Article
                ncomms13428
                10.1038/ncomms13428
                5105171
                27824333
                43edb33c-a1a1-4e4f-b6b7-bf593d5bab55
                Copyright © 2016, The Author(s)

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 24 March 2016
                : 30 September 2016
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