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      Risk and prediction of multiple primary malignancies after early gastric cancer

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          Abstract

          Background

          Patients with early gastric cancer have increased risk of developing multiple primary malignancies (MPM) due to improved survival rates. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathological features of MPM and to generate a useful tool for predicting the development of MPM after early gastric cancer.

          Methods

          We selected 1025 early gastric cancer patients with complete medical records for a retrospective analysis. The Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors for the development of MPM in early gastric cancer. RStudio software was used to compare the OS of early gastric cancer patients with and without MPM, and a nomogram was established to predict the probability of MPM 1-, 2-, 3-year after early gastric cancer. The predictive effectiveness of the nomogram was evaluated by the C-index and calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) measured the applicability of the nomogram to clinical practice.

          Results

          Of the 1025 patients with early gastric cancer, 66 patients (6.4%) had 69 primary cancers other than early gastric cancer. They had a median follow-up of 41 months, and their cumulative incidence of MPM was 4.9%, 5.4% and 5.9% after 1-, 2-, and 3- year, respectively. Oesophageal cancer was the most frequently detected MPM, followed by lung and colorectal cancers. Male (p=0.038), age ≥65 years (p=0.003), smoking history (p=0.036), and lymph node metastasis (p=0.013) were independent risk factors for MPM in patients with early gastric cancer. Patients with early gastric cancer with MPM had a worse OS prognosis than patients with early gastric cancer without MPM (p<0.001). The internally validated nomogram predicted the probability of developing MPM after early gastric cancer (C index= 0.697). The calibration chart showed that the predicted probability of MPM in early gastric cancer was similar to the observed result, and the DCA showed strong clinical practicability.

          Conclusion

          After the diagnosis and treatment of early gastric cancer, we should be alert to the possibility of MPM and perform regular and careful monitoring.

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          Most cited references46

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          Global Cancer Statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries

          This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31. © 2018 American Cancer Society.
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            Global burden of gastric cancer attributable to Helicobacter pylori.

            We previously estimated that 660,000 cases of cancer in the year 2008 were attributable to the bacterium Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), corresponding to 5.2% of the 12.7 million total cancer cases that occurred worldwide. In recent years, evidence has accumulated that immunoblot (western blot) is more sensitive for detection of anti-H. pylori antibodies than ELISA, the detection method used in our previous analysis. The purpose of this short report is to update the attributable fraction (AF) estimate for H. pylori after briefly reviewing new evidence, and to reassess the global burden of cancer attributable to H. pylori. We therefore reviewed the literature for studies comparing the risk of developing non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) in cases and controls, using both ELISA and multiple antigen immunoblot for detection of H. pylori. The results from prospective studies were combined, and the new pooled estimates were applied to the calculation of the AF for H. pylori in NCGC, then to the burden of infection-related cancers worldwide. Using the immunoblot-based data, the worldwide AF for H. pylori in NCGC increased from 74.7% to 89.0%. This implies approximately 120,000 additional cases of NCGC attributable to H. pylori infection for a total of around 780,000 cases (6.2% instead of 5.2% of all cancers). These updated estimates reinforce the role of H. pylori as a major cause of cancer.
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              Vertebrate endoderm development and organ formation.

              The endoderm germ layer contributes to the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts and to all of their associated organs. Over the past decade, studies in vertebrate model organisms, including frog, fish, chick, and mouse, have greatly enhanced our understanding of the molecular basis of endoderm organ development. We review this progress with a focus on early stages of endoderm organogenesis including endoderm formation, gut tube morphogenesis and patterning, and organ specification. Lastly, we discuss how developmental mechanisms that regulate endoderm organogenesis are used to direct differentiation of embryonic stem cells into specific adult cell types, which function to alleviate disease symptoms in animal models.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Oncol
                Front Oncol
                Front. Oncol.
                Frontiers in Oncology
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2234-943X
                25 July 2023
                2023
                : 13
                : 1205358
                Affiliations
                [1] Department of Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University , Jinan, Shandong, China
                Author notes

                Edited by: Jun Lu, Fujian Medical University, China

                Reviewed by: Natale Calomino, University of Siena, Italy; Yosuke Tsuji, The University of Tokyo, Japan; Michela Giulii Capponi, Santo Spirito in Sassia Hospital, Italy

                *Correspondence: Junmei Jiang, 13626403981@ 123456163.com
                Article
                10.3389/fonc.2023.1205358
                10409482
                43d16ae8-880c-4d80-936d-081dc58bb81f
                Copyright © 2023 Chen, Shi, Ge, Jia and Jiang

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 13 April 2023
                : 10 July 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 3, Equations: 0, References: 46, Pages: 9, Words: 3668
                Funding
                This work was supported by the Youth Program of Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (grant number ZR2021QH327).
                Categories
                Oncology
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                Gastrointestinal Cancers: Gastric and Esophageal Cancers

                Oncology & Radiotherapy
                early gastric cancer,multiple primary malignancies,nomogram,predictive factor,predictive tool

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