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Abstract
Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of cats and dogs across
Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of several vector borne
parasites like Dirofilaria, and in the risk of infection for animals and humans. The
present paper reviews the effects of climate and other global drivers on Dirofilaria
immitis and Dirofilaria repens infections in Europe and the possible implications
on the transmission and control of these mosquito-borne nematodes. In the last several
years, growing degree day (GDD)-based forecast models, which use wide or local scale
temperature data, have been developed to predict the occurrence and seasonality of
Dirofilaria in different parts of the world. All these models are based on the fact
that: there is a threshold of 14 degrees C below which Dirofilaria development will
not proceed; and there is a requirement of 130 GDD for larvae to reach infectivity
and a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a vector mosquito. The output of these
models predicts that the summer temperatures (with peaks in July) are sufficient to
facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at high latitudes. The global
warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that warm
summers suitable for Dirofilaria transmission in Europe will be the rule in the future
decades and if the actual trend of temperature increase continues, filarial infection
should spread into previously infection-free areas. These factors not only favour
incubation of Dirofilaria, but also impact on mosquito species. Recent findings have
also demonstrated that Aedes albopictus is now considered to be an important, competent
vector of Dirofilaria infections. This mosquito species could spread from southern
to northern European countries in the near future, changing the epidemiological patterns
of dirofilariosis both in humans and animals.