Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in the Management of Myelodysplastic Syndrome: An Evidence-Based Review from the American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Committee on Practice Guidelines

The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) is an important standard for assessing prognosis of primary untreated adult patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To refine the IPSS, MDS patient databases from international institutions were coalesced to assemble a much larger combined database (Revised-IPSS [IPSS-R], n = 7012, IPSS, n = 816) for analysis. Multiple statistically weighted clinical features were used to generate a prognostic categorization model. Bone marrow cytogenetics, marrow blast percentage, and cytopenias remained the basis of the new system. Novel components of the current analysis included: 5 rather than 3 cytogenetic prognostic subgroups with specific and new classifications of a number of less common cytogenetic subsets, splitting the low marrow blast percentage value, and depth of cytopenias. This model defined 5 rather than the 4 major prognostic categories that are present in the IPSS. Patient age, performance status, serum ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase were significant additive features for survival but not for acute myeloid leukemia transformation. This system comprehensively integrated the numerous known clinical features into a method analyzing MDS patient prognosis more precisely than the initial IPSS. As such, this IPSS-R should prove beneficial for predicting the clinical outcomes of untreated MDS patients and aiding design and analysis of clinical trials in this disease.

Despite multiple disparate prognostic risk analysis systems for evaluating clinical outcome for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), imprecision persists with such analyses. To attempt to improve on these systems, an International MDS Risk Analysis Workshop combined cytogenetic, morphological, and clinical data from seven large previously reported risk-based studies that had generated prognostic systems. A global analysis was performed on these patients, and critical prognostic variables were re-evaluated to generate a consensus prognostic system, particularly using a more refined bone marrow (BM) cytogenetic classification. Univariate analysis indicated that the major variables having an impact on disease outcome for evolution to acute myeloid leukemia were cytogenetic abnormalities, percentage of BM myeloblasts, and number of cytopenias; for survival, in addition to the above, variables also included age and gender. Cytogenetic subgroups of outcome were as follows: "good" outcomes were normal, -Y alone, del(5q) alone, del(20q) alone; "poor" outcomes were complex (ie, > or = 3 abnormalities) or chromosome 7 anomalies; and "intermediate" outcomes were other abnormalities. Multivariate analysis combined these cytogenetic subgroups with percentage of BM blasts and number of cytopenias to generate a prognostic model. Weighting these variables by their statistical power separated patients into distinctive subgroups of risk for 25% of patients to undergo evolution to acute myeloid leukemia, with: low (31% of patients), 9.4 years; intermediate-1 (INT-1; 39%), 3.3 years; INT-2 (22%), 1.1 years; and high (8%), 0.2 year. These features also separated patients into similar distinctive risk groups for median survival: low, 5.7 years; INT-1, 3.5 years; INT-2, 1.2 years; and high, 0.4 year. Stratification for age further improved analysis of survival. Compared with prior risk-based classifications, this International Prognostic Scoring System provides an improved method for evaluating prognosis in MDS. This classification system should prove useful for more precise design and analysis of therapeutic trials in this disease.

We previously reported that the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was useful for predicting outcomes in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, the sample size of patients with scores of 1 or more, captured by the CCI, did not exceed 35%. Further, some comorbidities were rarely found among patients who underwent HCT. Therefore, the current study was designed to (1) better define previously identified comorbidities using pretransplant laboratory data, (2) investigate additional HCT-related comorbidities, and (3) establish comorbidity scores that were suited for HCT. Data were collected from 1055 patients, and then randomly divided into training and validation sets. Weights were assigned to individual comorbidities according to their prognostic significance in Cox proportional hazard models. The new index was then validated. The new index proved to be more sensitive than the CCI since it captured 62% of patients with scores more than 0 compared with 12%, respectively. Further, the new index showed better survival prediction than the CCI (likelihood ratio of 23.7 versus 7.1 and c statistics of 0.661 versus 0.561, respectively, P < .001). In conclusion, the new simple index provided valid and reliable scoring of pretransplant comorbidities that predicted nonrelapse mortality and survival. This index will be useful for clinical trials and patient counseling before HCT.