Development and validation of a machine learning-based framework for assessing metabolic-associated fatty liver disease risk

Abstract

Background

The existing predictive models for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) possess certain limitations that render them unsuitable for extensive population-wide screening. This study is founded upon population health examination data and employs a comparison of eight distinct machine learning (ML) algorithms to construct the optimal screening model for identifying high-risk individuals with MAFLD in China.

Methods

We collected physical examination data from 5,171,392 adults residing in the northwestern region of China, during the year 2021. Feature selection was conducted through the utilization of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Additionally, class balancing parameters were incorporated into the models, accompanied by hyperparameter tuning, to effectively address the challenges posed by imbalanced datasets. This study encompassed the development of both tree-based ML models (including Classification and Regression Trees, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Categorical Boosting) and alternative ML models (specifically, k-Nearest Neighbors and Artificial Neural Network) for the purpose of identifying individuals with MAFLD. Furthermore, we visualized the importance scores of each feature on the selected model.

Results

The average age (standard deviation) of the 5,171,392 participants was 51.12 (15.00) years, with 52.47% of the participants being females. MAFLD was diagnosed by specialized physicians. 20 variables were finally included for analyses after LASSO regression model. Following ten rounds of cross-validation and parameter optimization for each algorithm, the CatBoost algorithm exhibited the best performance, achieving an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.862. The ranking of feature importance indicates that age, BMI, triglyceride, fasting plasma glucose, waist circumference, occupation, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, ethnicity and cardiovascular diseases are the top 13 crucial factors for MAFLD screening.

Conclusion

This study utilized a large-scale, multi-ethnic physical examination data from the northwestern region of China to establish a more accurate and effective MAFLD risk screening model, offering a new perspective for the prediction and prevention of MAFLD.