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      Diagnostic accuracy of foot length measurement for identification of preterm newborn in rural Sindh, Pakistan

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Assessing gestational age accurately is crucial for saving preterm newborns. In low and middle-income countries, such as Pakistan, where access to antenatal ultrasonography (A-USG) is limited, alternative methods are needed. This study evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of foot length (FL) measurement for identifying preterm newborns in rural Pakistan using A-USG as the reference standard.

          Methods

          A test validation study was conducted between January and June 2023 in rural Sindh, Pakistan, within the catchment area of the Global Network for Maternal Newborn Health Registry, Thatta. Singleton newborns whose mothers had an A-USG before 20 weeks of gestation were enrolled. A research assistant measured FL three times using a rigid transparent plastic ruler within 48 hours of birth and the average FL was reported. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) and likelihood ratios were calculated. The optimal FL cut-off for the identification of preterm newborns was determined using the Youden Index.

          Results

          A total of 336 newborns were included in the final analysis, of whom 75 (22.3%) were born before 37 weeks of gestation. The median gestational age of the newborns was 38.2 weeks, and the median FL was 7.9 cm. The area under the curve was 97.6%. The optimal FL cut-off for identifying preterm newborns was considered as ≤7.6 cm with a sensitivity of 90.8%, specificity of 96.0%, PPV of 86.7% and NPV of 97.3%. A lower cut-off of ≤7.5 cm had a sensitivity of 95.4%, specificity of 84.0%, PPV of 63.1% and NPV of 98.5%.

          Conclusion

          In conclusion, this study highlights the utility of FL measurement for identifying preterm newborns in rural settings where A-USG is unavailable before 20 weeks of gestation. Optimal cut-offs of ≤7.6 and ≤7.5 cm provide a simple, cost-effective and reliable tool for clinicians and frontline healthcare providers in rural areas, respectively.

          Trial registration number

          NCT05515211.

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          Global, regional, and national estimates of levels of preterm birth in 2014: a systematic review and modelling analysis

          Saifon Chawanpaiboon, Joshua P. Vogel, Ann-Beth Moller … (2018)
          Summary Background Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years worldwide. Although preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries, preterm newborns still die because of a lack of adequate newborn care in many low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national rates of preterm birth in 2014, with trends over time for some selected countries. Methods We systematically searched for data on preterm birth for 194 WHO Member States from 1990 to 2014 in databases of national civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS). We also searched for population-representative surveys and research studies for countries with no or limited CRVS data. For 38 countries with high-quality data for preterm births in 2014, data are reported directly. For countries with at least three data points between 1990 and 2014, we used a linear mixed regression model to estimate preterm birth rates. We also calculated regional and global estimates of preterm birth for 2014. Findings We identified 1241 data points across 107 countries. The estimated global preterm birth rate for 2014 was 10·6% (uncertainty interval 9·0–12·0), equating to an estimated 14·84 million (12·65 million–16·73 million) live preterm births in 2014. 12· 0 million (81·1%) of these preterm births occurred in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Regional preterm birth rates for 2014 ranged from 13·4% (6·3–30·9) in North Africa to 8·7% (6·3–13·3) in Europe. India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia accounted for 57·9 million (41×4%) of 139·9 million livebirths and 6·6 million (44×6%) of preterm births globally in 2014. Of the 38 countries with high-quality data, preterm birth rates have increased since 2000 in 26 countries and decreased in 12 countries. Globally, we estimated that the preterm birth rate was 9×8% (8×3–10×9) in 2000, and 10×6% (9×0–12×0) in 2014. Interpretation Preterm birth remains a crucial issue in child mortality and improving quality of maternal and newborn care. To better understand the epidemiology of preterm birth, the quality and volume of data needs to be improved, including standardisation of definitions, measurement, and reporting. Funding WHO and the March of Dimes.
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            Population-based rates, timing, and causes of maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country prospective cohort study

            Imran Ahmed, Said Mohammed Ali, Seeba Amenga-Etego … (2018)
            Summary Background Modelled mortality estimates have been useful for health programmes in low-income and middle-income countries. However, these estimates are often based on sparse and low-quality data. We aimed to generate high quality data about the burden, timing, and causes of maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this prospective cohort study done in 11 community-based research sites in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, between July, 2012, and February, 2016, we conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) to identify pregnancies, which were followed up to birth and 42 days post partum. We used standard operating procedures, data collection instruments, training, and standardisation to harmonise study implementation across sites. Verbal autopsies were done for deaths of all women of reproductive age, neonatal deaths, and stillbirths. Physicians used standardised methods for cause of death assignment. Site-specific rates and proportions were pooled at the regional level using a meta-analysis approach. Findings We identified 278 186 pregnancies and 263 563 births across the study sites, with outcomes ascertained for 269 630 (96·9%) pregnancies, including 8761 (3·2%) that ended in miscarriage or abortion. Maternal mortality ratios in sub-Saharan Africa (351 per 100 000 livebirths, 95% CI 168–732) were similar to those in south Asia (336 per 100 000 livebirths, 247–458), with far greater variability within sites in sub-Saharan Africa. Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates were approximately two times higher in sites in south Asia than in sub-Saharan Africa (stillbirths: 35·1 per 1000 births, 95% CI 28·5–43·1 vs 17·1 per 1000 births, 12·5–25·8; neonatal mortality: 43·0 per 1000 livebirths, 39·0–47·3 vs 20·1 per 1000 livebirths, 14·6–27·6). 40–45% of pregnancy-related deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths occurred during labour, delivery, and the 24 h postpartum period in both regions. Obstetric haemorrhage, non-obstetric complications, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and pregnancy-related infections accounted for more than three-quarters of maternal deaths and stillbirths. The most common causes of neonatal deaths were perinatal asphyxia (40%, 95% CI 39–42, in south Asia; 34%, 32–36, in sub-Saharan Africa) and severe neonatal infections (35%, 34–36, in south Asia; 37%, 34–39 in sub-Saharan Africa), followed by complications of preterm birth (19%, 18–20, in south Asia; 24%, 22–26 in sub-Saharan Africa). Interpretation These results will contribute to improved global estimates of rates, timing, and causes of maternal and newborn deaths and stillbirths. Our findings imply that programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia need to further intensify their efforts to reduce mortality rates, which continue to be high. The focus on improving the quality of maternal intrapartum care and immediate newborn care must be further enhanced. Efforts to address perinatal asphyxia and newborn infections, as well as preterm birth, are critical to achieving survival goals in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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              National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000–15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

              Li Liu, Yue Chu, Shefali Oza … (2019)
              Summary Background India had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000–15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets. Methods We used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1–59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1–59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels. Findings In 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279–0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168–0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116–0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1–59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target. Interpretation Efforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000–15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMJ Paediatr Open
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMJ Paediatr Open
                Journal ID (hwp): bmjpo
                Journal ID (publisher-id): bmjpo
                Title: BMJ Paediatrics Open
                Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                ISSN (Electronic): 2399-9772
                Publication date Collection: 2024
                Publication date (Electronic): 24 January 2024
                Volume: 8
                Issue: 1
                Electronic Location Identifier: e002316
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentDepartment of Women's and Children's Health , Ringgold_8097Uppsala Universitet , Uppsala, Sweden
                [2 ]departmentDepartment of Community Health Sciences , Ringgold_9615The Aga Khan University , Karachi, Pakistan
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Shiyam Sundar Tikmani; shiyam.sunder@ 123456kbh.uu.se
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8828-8325
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1789-0436
                Article
                Publisher ID: bmjpo-2023-002316
                DOI: 10.1136/bmjpo-2023-002316
                PMC ID: 10824045
                PubMed ID: 38267220
                SO-VID: 3627f635-61a9-4e0c-b49b-f0373d3f02ea
                Copyright © © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                Date received : 30 September 2023
                Date accepted : 18 December 2023
                Categories
                Subject: Community Paediatrics
                Subject: 1506
                Series title: Original research
                Custom metadata
                special-feature unlocked

                Keywords: epidemiology,neonatology
                Data availability:
                Keywords: epidemiology, neonatology

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