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Abstract
<p class="first" id="d6962701e124">Mass shootings are a particular problem in the
United States, with one mass shooting
occurring approximately every 12.5 days.
</p><p id="d6962701e126">Recently a “contagion” effect has been suggested wherein
the occurrence of one mass
shooting increases the likelihood of another mass shooting occurring in the near future.
Although contagion is a convenient metaphor used to describe the temporal spread of
a behavior, it does not explain how the behavior spreads. Generalized imitation is
proposed as a better model to explain how one person’s behavior can influence another
person to engage in similar behavior.
</p><p id="d6962701e128">Here we provide an overview of generalized imitation and
discuss how the way in which
the media report a mass shooting can increase the likelihood of another shooting event.
Also, we propose media reporting guidelines to minimize imitation and further decrease
the likelihood of a mass shooting.
</p>
A social psychological account of the acquisition of binge eating, analogous to the classic social psychological work, "Social Pressures in Informal Groups" (Festinger, Schachter, & Back, 1950), is suggested and tested in two college sororities. In these sororities, clear evidence of group norms about appropriate binge-eating behavior was found; in one sorority, the more one binged, the more popular one was. In the other, popularity was associated with binging the right amount: Those who binged too much or too little were less popular than those who binged at the mean. Evidence of social pressures to binge eat were found as well. By the end of the academic year, a sorority member's binge eating could be predicted from the binge-eating level of her friends (average r = .31). As friendship groups grew more cohesive, a sorority member's binge eating grew more and more like that of her friends (average r = .35). The parsimony of a social psychological account of the acquisition of binge eating behavior is shown. I argue that there is no great mystery to how bulimia has become such a serious problem for today's women. Binge eating seems to be an acquired pattern of behavior, perhaps through modeling, and appears to be learned much like any other set of behaviors. Like other behaviors, it is under substantial social control.
Background Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts. Methods Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event. Conclusions We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
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