Predictive model of risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis or sepsis-associated delirium based on the MIMIC-IV database

Abstract

Research on the severity and prognosis of sepsis with or without progressive delirium is relatively insufficient. We constructed a prediction model of the risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients who developed sepsis or sepsis-associated delirium. The modeling group of patients diagnosed with Sepsis-3 and patients with progressive delirium of related indicators were selected from the MIMIC-IV database. Relevant independent risk factors were determined and integrated into the prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy and goodness-of-fit of the model. Relevant indicators of patients with sepsis or progressive delirium admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a 3A hospital in Xinjiang were collected and included in the verification group for comparative analysis and clinical validation of the prediction model. The total length of stay in the ICU, hemoglobin levels, albumin levels, activated partial thrombin time, and total bilirubin level were the five independent risk factors in constructing a prediction model. The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model (0.904) and the HL test result (χ ² = 8.518) indicate a good fit. This model is valuable for clinical diagnosis and treatment and auxiliary clinical decision-making.