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      Predicting COVID-19 Cases Among Nurses Using Artificial Neural Network Approach

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          Abstract

          We designed a forecasting model to determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19 among 220 nurses. We used multivariate regression analysis and different classification algorithms to assess the effect of several covariates, including exposure to COVID-19 patients, access to personal protective equipment, proper use of personal protective equipment, adherence to hand hygiene principles, stressfulness, and training on the risk of a nurse being infected. Access to personal protective equipment and training were associated with a 0.19- and 1.66-point lower score in being infected by COVID-19. Exposure to COVID-19 cases and being stressed of COVID-19 infection were associated with a 0.016- and 9.3-point higher probability of being infected by COVID-19. Furthermore, an artificial neural network with 75.8% (95% confidence interval, 72.1-78.9) validation accuracy and 76.6% (95% confidence interval, 73.1-78.6) overall accuracy could classify normal and infected nurses. The neural network can help managers and policymakers determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19.

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          Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

          To the Editor: A novel human coronavirus that is now named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (formerly called HCoV-19) emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and is now causing a pandemic. 1 We analyzed the aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 and compared it with SARS-CoV-1, the most closely related human coronavirus. 2 We evaluated the stability of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on various surfaces and estimated their decay rates using a Bayesian regression model (see the Methods section in the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org). SARS-CoV-2 nCoV-WA1-2020 (MN985325.1) and SARS-CoV-1 Tor2 (AY274119.3) were the strains used. Aerosols (<5 μm) containing SARS-CoV-2 (105.25 50% tissue-culture infectious dose [TCID50] per milliliter) or SARS-CoV-1 (106.75-7.00 TCID50 per milliliter) were generated with the use of a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum to create an aerosolized environment. The inoculum resulted in cycle-threshold values between 20 and 22, similar to those observed in samples obtained from the upper and lower respiratory tract in humans. Our data consisted of 10 experimental conditions involving two viruses (SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1) in five environmental conditions (aerosols, plastic, stainless steel, copper, and cardboard). All experimental measurements are reported as means across three replicates. SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours), with a reduction in infectious titer from 103.5 to 102.7 TCID50 per liter of air. This reduction was similar to that observed with SARS-CoV-1, from 104.3 to 103.5 TCID50 per milliliter (Figure 1A). SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard, and viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to these surfaces (Figure 1A), although the virus titer was greatly reduced (from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter of medium after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). The stability kinetics of SARS-CoV-1 were similar (from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50 per milliliter after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). On copper, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 4 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours. On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours (Figure 1A). Both viruses had an exponential decay in virus titer across all experimental conditions, as indicated by a linear decrease in the log10TCID50 per liter of air or milliliter of medium over time (Figure 1B). The half-lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols, with median estimates of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 hours and 95% credible intervals of 0.64 to 2.64 for SARS-CoV-2 and 0.78 to 2.43 for SARS-CoV-1 (Figure 1C, and Table S1 in the Supplementary Appendix). The half-lives of the two viruses were also similar on copper. On cardboard, the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was longer than that of SARS-CoV-1. The longest viability of both viruses was on stainless steel and plastic; the estimated median half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was approximately 5.6 hours on stainless steel and 6.8 hours on plastic (Figure 1C). Estimated differences in the half-lives of the two viruses were small except for those on cardboard (Figure 1C). Individual replicate data were noticeably “noisier” (i.e., there was more variation in the experiment, resulting in a larger standard error) for cardboard than for other surfaces (Fig. S1 through S5), so we advise caution in interpreting this result. We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic. 3,4 Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events, 5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.
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            Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19

            This study describes possible transmission of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from an asymptomatic Wuhan resident to 5 family members in Anyang, a Chinese city in the neighboring province of Hubei.
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              Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19 among Chinese residents during the rapid rise period of the COVID-19 outbreak: a quick online cross-sectional survey

              Unprecedented measures have been adopted to control the rapid spread of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in China. People's adherence to control measures is affected by their knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) towards COVID-19. In this study, we investigated Chinese residents' KAP towards COVID-19 during the rapid rise period of the outbreak. An online sample of Chinese residents was successfully recruited via the authors' networks with residents and popular media in Hubei, China. A self-developed online KAP questionnaire was completed by the participants. The knowledge questionnaire consisted of 12 questions regarding the clinical characteristics and prevention of COVID-19. Assessments on residents' attitudes and practices towards COVID-19 included questions on confidence in winning the battle against COVID-19 and wearing masks when going out in recent days. Among the survey completers (n=6910), 65.7% were women, 63.5% held a bachelor degree or above, and 56.2% engaged in mental labor. The overall correct rate of the knowledge questionnaire was 90%. The majority of the respondents (97.1%) had confidence that China can win the battle against COVID-19. Nearly all of the participants (98.0%) wore masks when going out in recent days. In multiple logistic regression analyses, the COVID-19 knowledge score (OR: 0.75-0.90, P<0.001) was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of negative attitudes and preventive practices towards COVID-2019. Most Chinese residents of a relatively high socioeconomic status, in particular women, are knowledgeable about COVID-19, hold optimistic attitudes, and have appropriate practices towards COVID-19. Health education programs aimed at improving COVID-19 knowledge are helpful for Chinese residents to hold optimistic attitudes and maintain appropriate practices. Due to the limited sample representativeness, we must be cautious when generalizing these findings to populations of a low socioeconomic status.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Comput Inform Nurs
                Comput Inform Nurs
                CIN
                Computers, Informatics, Nursing
                Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
                1538-2931
                1538-9774
                May 2022
                23 April 2022
                23 April 2022
                : 40
                : 5
                : 341-349
                Affiliations
                [1] Author Affiliations: School of Medicine (Drs Namdar and Abdollahzade), Qazvin University of Medical Sciences (Ms Teymori); Department of Biomedical Engineering, School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (Dr Shafiekhani); and Student Research Center, School of Public Health (Mrs Maleki), and Social Determinants of Health Research Center (Dr Rafiei), Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
                Author notes
                [*] Corresponding author: Sima Rafiei, PhD, School of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Bahonar Blvd., Qazvin, Iran ( Sima.rafie@ 123456gmail.com ).
                Article
                CIN_220218 00009
                10.1097/CIN.0000000000000907
                9093222
                35470304
                2f788e11-566f-4b5c-9469-d47a54b8d7ef
                Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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                Special Focus: Technology Use during Pandemic
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                covid-19,neural network,personal protective equipment,prediction

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