Projections of soil loss by water erosion in Europe by 2050

There is a deep and useful connection between statistical mechanics (the behavior of systems with many degrees of freedom in thermal equilibrium at a finite temperature) and multivariate or combinatorial optimization (finding the minimum of a given function depending on many parameters). A detailed analogy with annealing in solids provides a framework for optimization of the properties of very large and complex systems. This connection to statistical mechanics exposes new information and provides an unfamiliar perspective on traditional optimization problems and methods.

Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of accelerated soil erosion, which has substantial implications for nutrient and carbon cycling, land productivity and in turn, worldwide socio-economic conditions. Here we present an unprecedentedly high resolution (250 × 250 m) global potential soil erosion model, using a combination of remote sensing, GIS modelling and census data. We challenge the previous annual soil erosion reference values as our estimate, of 35.9 Pg yr−1 of soil eroded in 2012, is at least two times lower. Moreover, we estimate the spatial and temporal effects of land use change between 2001 and 2012 and the potential offset of the global application of conservation practices. Our findings indicate a potential overall increase in global soil erosion driven by cropland expansion. The greatest increases are predicted to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. The least developed economies have been found to experience the highest estimates of soil erosion rates.