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      A third of the tropical African flora is potentially threatened with extinction

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          Abstract

          The tropical African flora is highly biodiverse, but around one in every three species is potentially threatened with extinction.

          Abstract

          Preserving tropical biodiversity is an urgent challenge when faced with the growing needs of countries. Despite their crucial importance for terrestrial ecosystems, most tropical plant species lack extinction risk assessments, limiting our ability to identify conservation priorities. Using a novel approach aligned with IUCN Red List criteria, we conducted a continental-scale preliminary conservation assessment of 22,036 vascular plant species in tropical Africa. Our results underline the high level of extinction risk of the tropical African flora. Thirty-three percent of the species are potentially threatened with extinction, and another third of species are likely rare, potentially becoming threatened in the near future. Four regions are highlighted with a high proportion (>40%) of potentially threatened species: Ethiopia, West Africa, central Tanzania, and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our approach represents a first step toward data-driven conservation assessments applicable at continental scales providing crucial information for sustainable economic development prioritization.

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          Most cited references47

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          Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities.

          Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
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            Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World: A New Map of Life on Earth

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              Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

              Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                SciAdv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                November 2019
                20 November 2019
                : 5
                : 11
                : eaax9444
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Missouri Botanical Garden, Africa & Madagascar Department, P.O. Box 299, St. Louis, MO 63166-0299, USA.
                [2 ]Herbarium et Bibliothèque de Botanique Africaine, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Boulevard du Triomphe, B-1050 Bruxelles, Belgium.
                [3 ]Botanic Garden Meise, Nieuwelaan 38, BE-1860 Meise, Belgium.
                [4 ]AMAP Lab, IRD, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
                [5 ]Laboratoire d’Évolution biologique et Écologie, Faculté des Sciences, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
                [6 ]FRB–CESAB 5, rue de l’École de Médecine, 34000 Montpellier, France.
                [7 ]Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
                [8 ]Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
                [9 ]Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK.
                [10 ]Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AE, UK.
                [11 ]Plant Systematic and Ecology Laboratory, Department of Biology, Higher Teachers' Training College B.P. 047, University of Yaounde I.
                [12 ]Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwinweg 2, 2333 CR Leiden, Netherlands.
                [13 ]DIADE, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
                Author notes
                [*]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                []Corresponding author. Email: thomas.couvreur@ 123456ird.fr
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6212-0361
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-413X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0200-1547
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9798-5616
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6801-2484
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5244-694X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6997-5813
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3415-0862
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0566-372X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8509-6587
                Article
                aax9444
                10.1126/sciadv.aax9444
                6867875
                31799397
                2cd699f7-9124-4ace-908b-f2dbc8c730d1
                Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 07 May 2019
                : 20 September 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003137, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversite;
                Award ID: RAINBIO
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research Articles
                SciAdv r-articles
                Applied Ecology
                Science Policy
                Applied Ecology
                Custom metadata
                Monica Bilog

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