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      Massive and rapid predominantly volcanic CO 2 emission during the end-Permian mass extinction

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          Significance

          The end-Permian mass extinction event (ca. 252 Mya) is the most-severe biodiversity loss in Earth’s history and is globally recognized by a rapid negative carbon isotope excursion. The trigger of this event, however, remains controversial. New paired terrestrial and marine compound-specific carbon isotope records may provide clues for this enigma. By comparing observed data to results from an isotope-enabled Earth system model, we find that a massive and rapid, predominantly volcanic CO 2 emission during the Siberian Traps volcanism is likely the trigger for the carbon isotope excursion and the severe mass extinction. Our findings provide quantitative constraints of how a massive and rapid increase in CO 2 may have influenced the marine ecosystem 252 Mya.

          Abstract

          The end-Permian mass extinction event (∼252 Mya) is associated with one of the largest global carbon cycle perturbations in the Phanerozoic and is thought to be triggered by the Siberian Traps volcanism. Sizable carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) have been found at numerous sites around the world, suggesting massive quantities of 13C-depleted CO 2 input into the ocean and atmosphere system. The exact magnitude and cause of the CIEs, the pace of CO 2 emission, and the total quantity of CO 2, however, remain poorly known. Here, we quantify the CO 2 emission in an Earth system model based on new compound-specific carbon isotope records from the Finnmark Platform and an astronomically tuned age model. By quantitatively comparing the modeled surface ocean pH and boron isotope pH proxy, a massive (∼36,000 Gt C) and rapid emission (∼5 Gt C yr −1) of largely volcanic CO 2 source (∼−15%) is necessary to drive the observed pattern of CIE, the abrupt decline in surface ocean pH, and the extreme global temperature increase. This suggests that the massive amount of greenhouse gases may have pushed the Earth system toward a critical tipping point, beyond which extreme changes in ocean pH and temperature led to irreversible mass extinction. The comparatively amplified CIE observed in higher plant leaf waxes suggests that the surface waters of the Finnmark Platform were likely out of equilibrium with the initial massive centennial-scale release of carbon from the massive Siberian Traps volcanism, supporting the rapidity of carbon injection. Our modeling work reveals that carbon emission pulses are accompanied by organic carbon burial, facilitated by widespread ocean anoxia.

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          Most cited references126

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          Global silicate weathering and CO2 consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of large rivers

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            Leaf epicuticular waxes.

            The external surface of the higher plants comprises a cuticular layer covered by a waxy deposit. This deposit is believed to play a major part in such phenomena as the water balance of plants and the behavior of agricultural sprays. The wax contains a wide range of organic compounds. These complex mixtures are amenable to modern microchromatographic and microspectrometric analytical procedures. The few surveys which have been made of the species distribution of certain classes of constituents indicate that such distribution may be of limited taxonomic value; however, the wax composition of a species may differ for different parts of the same plant and may vary with season, locale, and the age of the plant. This fascinating subject, in which the disciplines of botany, biochemistry, chemistry, and physics overlap and interact, is still in a very active state. Much remains to be learned about the composition and fine structure of the wax deposits, and, for this, experimental study of wax crystallization and permeation through artificial membranes will be required. Enzymic studies, radiolabeling, and electron microscopy will be needed to reveal the mode of biogenesis of the wax constituents and their site of formation and subsequent pathway through the cuticle to the leaf surface.
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              Global Carbon Budget 2019

              Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                pnas
                PNAS
                Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
                National Academy of Sciences
                0027-8424
                1091-6490
                14 September 2021
                07 September 2021
                07 September 2021
                : 118
                : 37
                : e2014701118
                Affiliations
                [1] aDepartment of Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair State University , Montclair, NJ 07043;
                [2] bSchool of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University , Beijing 100871, China;
                [3] cDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo , Oslo 0371, Norway;
                [4] dDepartment of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University , 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
                Author notes
                1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: w.m.kurschner@ 123456geo.uio.no , cuiy@ 123456montclair.edu , or msli@ 123456pku.edu.cn .

                Edited by Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and approved July 21, 2021 (received for review July 13, 2020)

                Author contributions: W.M.K. designed research; Y.C., M.L., and E.E.v.S. performed research; Y.C., M.L., E.E.v.S., F.P., and W.M.K. analyzed data; and Y.C., M.L., E.E.v.S., F.P., and W.M.K. wrote the paper.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1057-4369
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5542-8106
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8781-2826
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6883-6486
                Article
                202014701
                10.1073/pnas.2014701118
                8449420
                34493684
                2b267ce9-d4ae-4a90-ba90-195be126133c
                Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

                This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

                History
                : 21 July 2021
                Page count
                Pages: 11
                Funding
                Funded by: Norges Forskningsråd (Forskningsrådet) 501100005416
                Award ID: Grant No. 234005
                Award Recipient : Wolfram M. Kürschner
                Funded by: National Science Foundation (NSF) 100000001
                Award ID: Grant No. 2026877
                Award Recipient : Ying Cui
                Funded by: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) 501100001809
                Award ID: Grant No. 42072040
                Award Recipient : Ying Cui
                Categories
                413
                Physical Sciences
                Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences

                end-permian mass extinction,compound specific carbon isotopes,co2,earth system model

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