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      Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater

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          Abstract

          Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual’s breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change.

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          Modeling Survival and Testing Biological Hypotheses Using Marked Animals: A Unified Approach with Case Studies

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            Seabird conservation status, threats and priority actions: a global assessment

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: MethodologyRole: Supervision
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Investigation
                Role: Formal analysisRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Visualization
                Role: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Methodology
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                16 December 2021
                2021
                : 16
                : 12
                : e0260812
                Affiliations
                [1 ] School of Natural & Social Sciences, University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham, United Kingdom
                [2 ] CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France
                [3 ] Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
                [4 ] National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
                [5 ] Oxford Navigation Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
                [6 ] ZSL Institute of Zoology, London, United Kingdom
                [7 ] Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
                [8 ] Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
                MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, PORTUGAL
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                [¤a]

                Current address: Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

                [¤b]

                Current address: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

                [¤c]

                Current address: Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, AG Behavioural Genomics, Plön, Germany

                [¤d]

                Current address: Institute of Avian Research, Wilhelmshaven, Germany

                [¤e]

                Current address: Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, Liverpool, United Kingdom

                [¤f]

                Current address: Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0920-8396
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9054-9376
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8372-8560
                Article
                PONE-D-21-03338
                10.1371/journal.pone.0260812
                8675709
                34914747
                2785efaa-ad67-451d-89f2-dcfcb1284723
                © 2021 Wood et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 2 February 2021
                : 17 November 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 2, Pages: 17
                Funding
                Funded by: JNCC Seabird Monitoring Programme
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Mary Griffiths Award
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: University of Gloucestershire
                Award Recipient :
                The UK’s Joint Nature Conservation Committee provided a partial funding contribution from the Seabird Monitoring Programme to CP for seabird monitoring on Skomer Island. The University of Gloucestershire’s Environmental Dynamics and Governance RPA provided financial support to MW and SL. TG’s research on Skomer is supported by the Mary Griffiths award. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Evolutionary Biology
                Evolutionary Processes
                Natural Selection
                Reproductive Success
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                Psychology
                Behavior
                Animal Behavior
                Animal Sexual Behavior
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                Custom metadata
                Data are available on request for non-commercial use via the University of Gloucestershire Research Repository ( https://doi.org/10.46289/MADA7435). All reasonable requests will be considered - there will be no restrictions on academic use of the data. We are unable to share the data publicly without restriction, due to potential commercial interests from energy developers with interests in the seas around the study site. We would give proper consideration to reasonable data requests for commercial use.

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