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      Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic

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          Abstract

          On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “ [COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM 2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO 2 and NO x. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.

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          Most cited references47

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          Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

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            Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Data curationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Investigation
                Role: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Data curation
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                9 July 2020
                2020
                9 July 2020
                : 15
                : 7
                : e0235654
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Integrated Sustainability Analysis, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
                [2 ] Discipline of Accounting, School of Business, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
                [3 ] Resource Efficient Built Environment Lab, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
                [4 ] Business School, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
                [5 ] School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
                [6 ] Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
                [7 ] Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan
                [8 ] Centre for Big Data Research in Health, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
                [9 ] School of Earth Sciences, Energy and Environment, Yachay Tech University, Urcuquí, Ecuador
                [10 ] Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
                [11 ] Advanced Water Management Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
                [12 ] Center for Material Cycles and Waste Management Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
                [13 ] Centre for Complex Systems, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
                [14 ] School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P.R. China
                Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, GERMANY
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4630-9869
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3704-7975
                Article
                PONE-D-20-11900
                10.1371/journal.pone.0235654
                7347123
                32645023
                26417832-e1ff-406e-9f5c-1f1837983668
                © 2020 Lenzen et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 24 April 2020
                : 21 June 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 0, Pages: 13
                Funding
                Funded by: This work was financially supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Projects DP0985522, DP130101293, DP190102277, DP200103005 and LE160100066, as well as the National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project (NeCTAR) through its Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory infrastructure VL 201.
                This work was financially supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Projects DP0985522, DP130101293, DP190102277, DP200103005 and LE160100066, as well as the National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project (NeCTAR) through its Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory infrastructure VL 201.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Economic Analysis
                Economic Impact Analysis
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Pollution
                Air Pollution
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Environmental Economics
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Environmental Economics
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                China
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Europe
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Environmental Chemistry
                Atmospheric Chemistry
                Greenhouse Gases
                Carbon Dioxide
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Chemical Compounds
                Carbon Dioxide
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.
                COVID-19

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