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      Learning the intrinsic dynamics of spatio-temporal processes through Latent Dynamics Networks

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          Abstract

          Predicting the evolution of systems with spatio-temporal dynamics in response to external stimuli is essential for scientific progress. Traditional equations-based approaches leverage first principles through the numerical approximation of differential equations, thus demanding extensive computational resources. In contrast, data-driven approaches leverage deep learning algorithms to describe system evolution in low-dimensional spaces. We introduce an architecture, termed Latent Dynamics Network, capable of uncovering low-dimensional intrinsic dynamics in potentially non-Markovian systems. Latent Dynamics Networks automatically discover a low-dimensional manifold while learning the system dynamics, eliminating the need for training an auto-encoder and avoiding operations in the high-dimensional space. They predict the evolution, even in time-extrapolation scenarios, of space-dependent fields without relying on predetermined grids, thus enabling weight-sharing across query-points. Lightweight and easy-to-train, Latent Dynamics Networks demonstrate superior accuracy (normalized error 5 times smaller) in highly-nonlinear problems with significantly fewer trainable parameters (more than 10 times fewer) compared to state-of-the-art methods.

          Abstract

          Predicting the evolution of dynamical systems remains challenging, requiring high computational effort or effective reduction of the system into a low-dimensional space. Here, the authors present a data-driven approach for predicting the evolution of systems exhibiting spatiotemporal dynamics in response to external input signals.

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          Most cited references64

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          Long Short-Term Memory

          Learning to store information over extended time intervals by recurrent backpropagation takes a very long time, mostly because of insufficient, decaying error backflow. We briefly review Hochreiter's (1991) analysis of this problem, then address it by introducing a novel, efficient, gradient-based method called long short-term memory (LSTM). Truncating the gradient where this does not do harm, LSTM can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units. Multiplicative gate units learn to open and close access to the constant error flow. LSTM is local in space and time; its computational complexity per time step and weight is O(1). Our experiments with artificial data involve local, distributed, real-valued, and noisy pattern representations. In comparisons with real-time recurrent learning, back propagation through time, recurrent cascade correlation, Elman nets, and neural sequence chunking, LSTM leads to many more successful runs, and learns much faster. LSTM also solves complex, artificial long-time-lag tasks that have never been solved by previous recurrent network algorithms.
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            Physics-Informed Neural Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Solving Forward and Inverse Problems Involving Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

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              Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China

              Summary On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic 1 . The outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective 2 , but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of NPIs and their timings 3 . Using epidemiological and anonymised human movement data 4,5 , here we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range 76,776 -164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020. Without NPIs, the COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (interquartile range 44 - 94) by February 29, 2020, with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to have prevented more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but combined NPIs achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. The lifting of travel restrictions since February 17, 2020 does not appear to lead to an increase in cases across China if the social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of 25% reduction on average through late April. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of NPIs on COVID-19 and to inform response efforts across the World.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                francesco.regazzoni@polimi.it
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                28 February 2024
                28 February 2024
                2024
                : 15
                : 1834
                Affiliations
                [1 ]MOX, Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, ( https://ror.org/01nffqt88) Milan, Italy
                [2 ]Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, ( https://ror.org/00f54p054) Stanford, CA USA
                [3 ]École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, ( https://ror.org/02s376052) Lausanne, Switzerland
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4207-1400
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6558-8277
                Article
                45323
                10.1038/s41467-024-45323-x
                11258335
                38418469
                2271175e-84d9-4a36-b92b-b96e933851fa
                © The Author(s) 2024

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 14 June 2023
                : 19 January 2024
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                © Springer Nature Limited 2024

                Uncategorized
                applied mathematics,computational science,engineering
                Uncategorized
                applied mathematics, computational science, engineering

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