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      Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation

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          Abstract

          Purpose of Review

          What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation?

          Recent Findings

          Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation.

          Summary

          Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.

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          Most cited references52

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          The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.

          P. A. O'Gorman, T. SCHNEIDER (2009)
          Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
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            Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

            S. Pfahl, P A O’Gorman, E. Fischer (2017)
            Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.
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              High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

              L Leung, Pier Vidale, Catherine Senior … (2016)
              Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Angeline G. Pendergrass: apgrass@ucar.edu
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Curr Clim Change Rep
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Curr Clim Change Rep
                Title: Current Climate Change Reports
                Publisher: Springer International Publishing (Cham )
                ISSN (Electronic): 2198-6061
                Publication date (Electronic): 4 May 2020
                Publication date PMC-release: 4 May 2020
                Publication date (Print): 2020
                Volume: 6
                Issue: 2
                Pages: 47-54
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.57828.30, ISNI 0000 0004 0637 9680, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, , National Center for Atmospheric Research, ; PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80303 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.5801.c, ISNI 0000 0001 2156 2780, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, , ETH Zurich, ; Zurich, Switzerland
                Article
                Publisher ID: 157
                DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00157-9
                PMC ID: 7319320
                SO-VID: 1df58d57-ee7f-42b6-aedd-b4abb930bf62
                Copyright © © The Author(s) 2020
                License:

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                Funding
                Funded by: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)
                Award ID: PMM grant 80NSSC19K0717
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015, U.S. Department of Energy;
                Award ID: BER RGMA via NSF IA 1844590
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: Cooperative Agreement No. 1947282
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Subject: Precipitation Extremes and Climate Change (C Muller, Section Editor)
                Custom metadata
                issue-copyright-statement © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

                Keywords: extreme precipitation,convective organization,climate change
                Data availability:
                Keywords: extreme precipitation, convective organization, climate change

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