Predicting blood β-hydroxybutyrate using milk Fourier transform infrared spectrum, milk composition, and producer-reported variables with multiple linear regression, partial least squares regression, and artificial neural network

Diagnostic accuracy relates to the ability of a test to discriminate between the target condition and health. This discriminative potential can be quantified by the measures of diagnostic accuracy such as sensitivity and specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, the area under the ROC curve, Youden's index and diagnostic odds ratio. Different measures of diagnostic accuracy relate to the different aspects of diagnostic procedure: while some measures are used to assess the discriminative property of the test, others are used to assess its predictive ability. Measures of diagnostic accuracy are not fixed indicators of a test performance, some are very sensitive to the disease prevalence, while others to the spectrum and definition of the disease. Furthermore, measures of diagnostic accuracy are extremely sensitive to the design of the study. Studies not meeting strict methodological standards usually over- or under-estimate the indicators of test performance as well as they limit the applicability of the results of the study. STARD initiative was a very important step toward the improvement the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy. STARD statement should be included into the Instructions to authors by scientific journals and authors should be encouraged to use the checklist whenever reporting their studies on diagnostic accuracy. Such efforts could make a substantial difference in the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy and serve to provide the best possible evidence to the best for the patient care. This brief review outlines some basic definitions and characteristics of the measures of diagnostic accuracy.

Subclinical ketosis (SCK) is defined as concentrations of β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) ≥ 1.2 to 1.4 mmol/L and it is considered a gateway condition for other metabolic and infectious disorders such as metritis, mastitis, clinical ketosis, and displaced abomasum. Reported prevalence rates range from 6.9 to 43% in the first 2 mo of lactation. However, there is a dearth of information on prevalence rates considering the diversity of European dairy farms. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine prevalence of SCK, (2) identify thresholds of BHBA, and (3) study their relationships with postpartum metritis, clinical ketosis, displaced abomasum, lameness, and mastitis in European dairy farms. From May to October 2011, a convenience sample of 528 dairy herds from Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey was studied. β-Hydroxybutyrate levels were measured in 5,884 cows with a handheld meter within 2 to 15 d in milk (DIM). On average, 11 cows were enrolled per farm and relevant information (e.g., DIM, postpartum diseases, herd size) was recorded. Using receiver operator characteristic curve analyses, blood BHBA thresholds were determined for the occurrence of metritis, mastitis, clinical ketosis, displaced abomasum, and lameness. Multivariate binary logistic regression models were built for each disease, considering cow as the experimental unit and herd as a random effect. Overall prevalence of SCK (i.e., blood BHBA ≥ 1.2 mmol/L) within 10 countries was 21.8%, ranging from 11.2 to 36.6%. Cows with SCK had 1.5, 9.5, and 5.0 times greater odds of developing metritis, clinical ketosis, and displaced abomasum, respectively. Multivariate binary logistic regression models demonstrated that cows with blood BHBA levels of ≥ 1.4, ≥ 1.1 and ≥ 1.7 mmol/L during 2 to 15 DIM had 1.7, 10.5, and 6.9 times greater odds of developing metritis, clinical ketosis, and displaced abomasum, respectively, compared with cows with lower BHBA blood levels. Interestingly, a postpartum blood BHBA threshold ≥ 1.1 mmol/L increased the odds for lameness in dairy cows 1.8 (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 2.5) times. Overall, prevalence of SCK was high between 2 to 15 DIM and SCK increased the odds of metritis, clinical ketosis, lameness, and displaced abomasum in European dairy herds.