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      Ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean revealed from the unprecedented reduction in marine growth of Atlantic salmon

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          Abstract

          Ecological regime shifts are abrupt changes in the structure and function of ecosystems that persist over time, but evidence of contemporary regime shifts are rare. Historical scale data from 52,384 individual wild Atlantic salmon caught in 180 rivers from 1989 to 2017 reveal that growth of Atlantic salmon across the Northeast Atlantic Ocean abruptly decreased following the year 2004. At the same time, the proportion of early maturing Atlantic salmon decreased. These changes occurred after a marked decrease in the extent of Arctic water in the Norwegian Sea, a subsequent warming of spring water temperature before Atlantic salmon entering the sea, and an approximately 50% reduction of zooplankton across large geographic areas of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. A sudden decrease in growth was also observed among Atlantic mackerel in the Norwegian Sea. Our results point toward an ecosystem-scale regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean.

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          Abstract

          An ecological regime shift has been discovered in the Northeast Atlantic that occurred in 2005.

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          Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Usinglme4

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            Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4

            Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed- and random-effects terms. The formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profiled REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of the model parameters. The appropriate criterion is optimized, using one of the constrained optimization functions in R, to provide the parameter estimates. We describe the structure of the model, the steps in evaluating the profiled deviance or REML criterion, and the structure of classes or types that represents such a model. Sufficient detail is included to allow specialization of these structures by users who wish to write functions to fit specialized linear mixed models, such as models incorporating pedigrees or smoothing splines, that are not easily expressible in the formula language used by lmer. Journal of Statistical Software, 67 (1) ISSN:1548-7660
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              Fishing down marine food webs

              The mean trophic level of the species groups reported in Food and Agricultural Organization global fisheries statistics declined from 1950 to 1994. This reflects a gradual transition in landings from long-lived, high trophic level, piscivorous bottom fish toward short-lived, low trophic level invertebrates and planktivorous pelagic fish. This effect, also found to be occurring in inland fisheries, is most pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Fishing down food webs (that is, at lower trophic levels) leads at first to increasing catches, then to a phase transition associated with stagnating or declining catches. These results indicate that present exploitation patterns are unsustainable.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Resources
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: Formal analysis
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Resources
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: ResourcesRole: Validation
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ResourcesRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing - review & editing
                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                sciadv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                March 2022
                04 March 2022
                : 8
                : 9
                : eabk2542
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), Laboratory for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, 5008 Bergen, Norway.
                [2 ]Rådgivende Biologer AS, 5059 Bergen, Norway.
                [3 ]Institute of Marine Research, 5817 Bergen, Norway.
                [4 ]Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), 7485 Trondheim, Norway.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. Email: knvo@ 123456norceresearch.no
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0210-4316
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1191-7036
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1213-9467
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1010-0577
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8862-8836
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7274-344X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1356-8239
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2253-900X
                Article
                abk2542
                10.1126/sciadv.abk2542
                8896796
                35245115
                17bb605f-b114-4423-b58a-20f99318dd03
                Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 02 July 2021
                : 13 January 2022
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416, Norges Forskningsråd;
                Award ID: 280308 S
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416, Norges Forskningsråd;
                Award ID: 275862
                Categories
                Research Article
                Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences
                SciAdv r-articles
                Applied Ecology
                Environmental Studies
                Applied Ecology
                Custom metadata
                Anne Suarez

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