An Improved Machine-Learning Approach for COVID-19 Prediction Using Harris Hawks Optimization and Feature Analysis Using SHAP

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Abstract

A healthcare monitoring system needs the support of recent technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and big data, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This global pandemic has already taken millions of lives. Both infected and uninfected people have generated big data where AI and ML can use to combat and detect COVID-19 at an early stage. Motivated by this, an improved ML framework for the early detection of this disease is proposed in this paper. The state-of-the-art Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm with an improved objective function is proposed and applied to optimize the hyperparameters of the ML algorithms, namely HHO-based eXtreme gradient boosting (HHOXGB), light gradient boosting (HHOLGB), categorical boosting (HHOCAT), random forest (HHORF) and support vector classifier (HHOSVC). An ensemble technique was applied to these optimized ML models to improve the prediction performance. Our proposed method was applied to publicly available big COVID-19 data and yielded a prediction accuracy of 92.38% using the ensemble model. In contrast, HHOXGB provided the highest accuracy of 92.23% as a single optimized model. The performance of the proposed method was compared with the traditional algorithms and other ML-based methods. In both cases, our proposed method performed better. Furthermore, not only the classification improvement, but also the features are analyzed in terms of feature importance calculated by SHapely adaptive exPlanations (SHAP) values. A graphical user interface is also discussed as a potential tool for nonspecialist users such as clinical staff and nurses. The processed data, trained model, and codes related to this study are available at GitHub.

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Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

Wei-jie Guan, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu … (2020)

Abstract Background Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients. Methods We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Results The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission. Conclusions During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.)

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OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19 death in 17 million patients

Elizabeth J Williamson, Alex J Walker, Krishnan Bhaskaran … (2020)

COVID-19 has rapidly impacted on mortality worldwide. 1 There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, requiring new approaches for timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England we created OpenSAFELY: a secure health analytics platform covering 40% of all patients in England, holding patient data within the existing data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19 related deaths. COVID-19 related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.59, 95%CI 1.53-1.65); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared to people with white ethnicity, black and South Asian people were at higher risk even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48, 1.29-1.69 and 1.45, 1.32-1.58 respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for COVID-19 related death in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. OpenSAFELY is rapidly adding further patients’ records; we will update and extend results regularly.