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      The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

      Author(s): 1 , 2
      Publication date Created:
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      Journal: Asian Economic Papers
      Publisher: MIT Press - Journals

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          Abstract

          COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.

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          Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries

          Robert J. Barro (1991)
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            Severe acute respiratory syndrome

            J S M Peiris, Y Guan, K. Yuen (2004)
            Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was caused by a previously unrecognized animal coronavirus that exploited opportunities provided by 'wet markets' in southern China to adapt to become a virus readily transmissible between humans. Hospitals and international travel proved to be 'amplifiers' that permitted a local outbreak to achieve global dimensions. In this review we will discuss the substantial scientific progress that has been made towards understanding the virus—SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV)—and the disease. We will also highlight the progress that has been made towards developing vaccines and therapies The concerted and coordinated response that contained SARS is a triumph for global public health and provides a new paradigm for the detection and control of future emerging infectious disease threats.
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              The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention.

              M. Meltzer, N Cox, K. Fukuda (1999)
              We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Asian Economic Papers
                Publisher: MIT Press - Journals
                ISSN (Print): 1535-3516
                ISSN (Electronic): 1536-0083
                Publication date Created: 2021
                Publication date Created: June 01 2021
                Publication date Created: May 15 2021
                Publication date Other: 2021
                Publication date (Print): June 01 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): May 15 2021
                Volume: 20
                Issue: 2
                Pages: 1-30
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University Room 3.58, Crawford Building 132, Lennox Crossing The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601 Australia Brookings Institution Washington, DC and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) Australia warwick.mckibbin@anu.edu.au
                [2 ]Crawford School of Public Policy The Australian National University and ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) roshen.fernando@anu.edu.au
                Article
                DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00796
                SO-VID: 16be63e2-3f0d-4b8c-94da-94cf36f3de4f
                Copyright © © 2021
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