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      Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

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          Abstract

          Impact of different antiviral treatment strategies on hospitalizations during an influenza pandemic is evaluated.

          Abstract

          The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%–25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.

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          Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza

          Christina E Mills, James M. Robins, Marc Lipsitch (2004)
          The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20–40 million people worldwide 1 , and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case 2 . Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases 2 . In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required. Supplementary information The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature03063) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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            Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic.

            Juergen Mueller, Justin S. Hogg (2001)
            The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.
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              Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.

              I Longini (2004)
              For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Emerg Infect Dis
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Emerging Infect. Dis
                Journal ID (publisher-id): EID
                Title: Emerging Infectious Diseases
                Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                ISSN (Print): 1080-6040
                ISSN (Electronic): 1080-6059
                Publication date (Print): September 2005
                Volume: 11
                Issue: 9
                Pages: 1355-1362
                Affiliations
                [* ]Health Protection Agency, Salisbury, Wiltshire, United Kingdom;
                [† ]Royal College of General Practitioners, Harborne, Birmingham, United Kingdom
                Author notes
                Address for correspondence: Raymond Gani; Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Health Protection Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, United Kingdom; fax: +44-1980-612-491; email: raymond.gani@ 123456hpa.org.uk
                Article
                Publisher ID: 04-1344
                DOI: 10.3201/eid1109.041344
                PMC ID: 3371825
                PubMed ID: 16229762
                SO-VID: 128a8932-fe58-4044-a899-28e51d18c7a8
                History
                Categories
                Subject: Research
                Subject: Research

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Infectious disease & Microbiology
                Keywords: epidemic modeling,public health planning,research,real time modeling,pandemic influenza,antiviral treatment
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Infectious disease & Microbiology
                Keywords: epidemic modeling, public health planning, research, real time modeling, pandemic influenza, antiviral treatment

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