Changes in planted forests and future global implications

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Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050

Deepak Ray, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Paul C West … (2013)

Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.

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Bringing Ecosystem Services into Economic Decision-Making: Land Use in the United Kingdom

Ian J. Bateman, Amii R. Harwood, Georgina M. Mace … (2013)

Land-use decisions are based largely on agricultural market values. However, such decisions can lead to losses of ecosystem services, such as the provision of wildlife habitat or recreational space, the magnitude of which may overwhelm any market agricultural benefits. In a research project forming part of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment, Bateman et al. (p. [Related article:] 45 ) estimate the value of these net losses. Policies that recognize the diversity and complexity of the natural environment can target changes to different areas so as to radically improve land use in terms of agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions, recreation, and wild species habitat and diversity. The value of using land for recreation and wildlife, not just for agriculture, can usefully factor into planning decisions. Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

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Biogeographical patterns and determinants of invasion by forest pathogens in Europe.

A. Santini, L Ghelardini, C. De Pace … (2013)

A large database of invasive forest pathogens (IFPs) was developed to investigate the patterns and determinants of invasion in Europe. Detailed taxonomic and biological information on the invasive species was combined with country-specific data on land use, climate, and the time since invasion to identify the determinants of invasiveness, and to differentiate the class of environments which share territorial and climate features associated with a susceptibility to invasion. IFPs increased exponentially in the last four decades. Until 1919, IFPs already present moved across Europe. Then, new IFPs were introduced mainly from North America, and recently from Asia. Hybrid pathogens also appeared. Countries with a wider range of environments, higher human impact or international trade hosted more IFPs. Rainfall influenced the diffusion rates. Environmental conditions of the new and original ranges and systematic and ecological attributes affected invasiveness. Further spread of established IFPs is expected in countries that have experienced commercial isolation in the recent past. Densely populated countries with high environmental diversity may be the weakest links in attempts to prevent new arrivals. Tight coordination of actions against new arrivals is needed. Eradication seems impossible, and prevention seems the only reliable measure, although this will be difficult in the face of global mobility. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

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Journal

Title: Forest Ecology and Management

Abbreviated Title: Forest Ecology and Management

Publisher: Elsevier BV

ISSN (Print): 03781127

Publication date Created: September 2015

Publication date (Print): September 2015

Volume: 352

Issue:

Pages: 57-67

Article

DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.021

SO-VID: 0fa35eee-680b-493c-aeb3-0b6f3a6f59a5

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