Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming

Lu, Jian Da; Chen, Gang; Frierson, Dargan M W

doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2200.1

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Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming

Author(s): Jian Lu , Gang Chen , Dargan M. W. Frierson

Publication date Created: November 2008

Publication date (Print): November 2008

Journal: Journal of Climate

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

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Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.

Myles Allen, William J. Ingram (2002)

What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.