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      From Mindless to Mindful Practice — Cognitive Bias and Clinical Decision Making

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      New England Journal of Medicine
      Massachusetts Medical Society

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          Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine.

          The great majority of medical diagnoses are made using automatic, efficient cognitive processes, and these diagnoses are correct most of the time. This analytic review concerns the exceptions: the times when these cognitive processes fail and the final diagnosis is missed or wrong. We argue that physicians in general underappreciate the likelihood that their diagnoses are wrong and that this tendency to overconfidence is related to both intrinsic and systemically reinforced factors. We present a comprehensive review of the available literature and current thinking related to these issues. The review covers the incidence and impact of diagnostic error, data on physician overconfidence as a contributing cause of errors, strategies to improve the accuracy of diagnostic decision making, and recommendations for future research.
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            Instructional Interventions Affecting Critical Thinking Skills and Dispositions: A Stage 1 Meta-Analysis

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              Clinical suspicion of fatal pulmonary embolism.

              Less than one third of patients with fatal pulmonary embolism (PE) are identified prior to autopsy. To determine whether the clinical syndromes of acute PE are effective at identifying patients who die of this condition. Seven hundred seventy-eight autopsy reports at the Buffalo General Hospital from 1991 to 1996 inclusive were reviewed. Inpatient medical records of 67 patients who were identified as having PE as the primary or major cause of death then were analyzed. Thirty patients (45% [95% confidence interval, 33 to 57%]) had received a diagnosis of PE prior to death, which was marginally higher than the number previously reported (p < 0.05). The diagnosis of PE was significantly lower (13%; p < 0.01) in patients with COPD or coronary artery disease (33%; p < 0.01). In contrast to the prospective investigation of PE diagnosis data, only a minority of patients (6%) presented with pleuritic pain or hemoptysis, while a significantly larger proportion (24%; p < 0.01) of our patients experienced circulatory collapse. Only 55% were identified as having PE from the following clinical syndromes of PE: isolated dyspnea; pleuritic pain and/or hemoptysis; and circulatory collapse. Among the 30 patients suspected of having PE, only 14 (47%) received IV heparin in therapeutic doses, despite clinical suspicion. Our results show a modest increase in the correct antemortem diagnosis of fatal PE. The current clinical syndromes used as markers for suspecting PE are not sufficient to detect patients who ultimately die of PE. Physicians should maintain a higher index of suspicion since fatal PE does not always present as one of the three clinical syndromes of PE. Once PE is suspected, heparin therapy should be started early.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                New England Journal of Medicine
                N Engl J Med
                Massachusetts Medical Society
                0028-4793
                1533-4406
                June 27 2013
                June 27 2013
                : 368
                : 26
                : 2445-2448
                Affiliations
                [1 ]From the Division of Medical Education, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.
                Article
                10.1056/NEJMp1303712
                23802513
                0e6bfdca-b0af-40ae-86ca-a356f384d56a
                © 2013
                History

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