Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

Abstract

Background

The long‐term trend in cancer death in a rapidly developing country provides information for cancer prophylaxis. Here, we aimed to identify the trends in cancer mortality in China during the 2004‐2018 period.

Methods

Using raw data from the national mortality surveillance system of China, we assessed the mortalities of all cancer and site‐specific cancers during the 2004‐2018 period. The participants were divided into three age groups: ≥65 years, 40‐64 years, and ≤39 years. Changing trends in cancer death by gender, residency, and tumor location were estimated using fitting joinpoint models to log‐transformed crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age‐standardized mortality rates (ASMRs).

Results

Cancer death accounted for 24% of all‐cause of death in China during 2014‐2018. The CMR of all cancer was 150.0 per 100,000 persons. Cancer was the leading cause of death in the population <65 years. The six major cancer types (lung/bronchus cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, esophagus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer) accounted for 75.85% of all cancer deaths. The CMR of all cancer increased while the ASMR decreased during 2014‐2018 ( P < 0.001). Lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer were the leading causes of cancer death in the population <65 years, accounting for 45.31% (CMR) and 44.35% (ASMR) of all cancer death, respectively. The ASMR of liver cancer was higher in the 40‐64 years population than in the ≥65 years population, in contrast to the other five major cancers. The ASMRs of liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophagus cancer decreased although they were higher in rural residents than in urban residents; the ASMRs of lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents although they were higher in urban residents than in rural residents during 2014‐2018.

Conclusion

Although the ASMR of all cancer decreased in China during 2004‐2018, lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer remained the leading causes of cancer‐related premature death. Lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents.

Abstract

This 15‐year longitudinal study described cancer burden of a rapid changing country with significant regional and urban‐rural disparities, which is important in evaluating the effect of population ageing, risk factor exposure, and public health efforts on cancer mortality. Lung and liver cancers were the 1st leading cause of immature death in women and men, respectively. Lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers kept increasing in rural areas. These findings are references for policy making to control cancer.