Optimizing hydropower scheduling through accurate power load prediction: A practical case study

Abstract

Hydropower stations that are part of the grid system frequently encounter challenges related to the uneven distribution of power generation and associated benefits, primarily stemming from delays in obtaining timely load data. This research addresses this issue by developing a scheduling model that combines power load prediction and dual-objective optimization. The practical application of this model is demonstrated in a real-case scenario, focusing on the Shatuo Hydropower Station in China. In contrast to current models, the suggested model can achieve optimal dispatch for grid-connected hydropower stations even when power load data is unavailable. Initially, the model assesses various prediction models for estimating power load and subsequently incorporates the predictions into the GA-NSGA-II algorithm, specifically an enhanced elite non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm. This integration is performed while considering the proposed objective functions to optimize the discharge flow of the hydropower station. The outcomes reveal that the CNN-GRU model, denoting Convolutional Neural Network-Gated Recursive Unit, exhibits the highest prediction accuracy, achieving R-squared and RMSE (i.e., Root Mean Square Error) values of 0.991 and 0.026, respectively. The variance between scheduling based on predicted load values and actual load values is minimal, staying within 5 ( ${\text{m}}^3/\text{s}$ ), showcasing practical effectiveness. The optimized scheduling outcomes in the real case study yield dual advantages, meeting both the demands of ship navigation and hydropower generation, thus achieving a harmonious balance between the two requirements. This approach addresses the real-world challenges associated with delayed load data collection and insufficient scheduling, offering an efficient solution for managing hydropower station scheduling to meet both power generation and navigation needs.

Graphical abstract

Highlights

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  New dispatch model integrates load prediction & dual-objective optimization for efficient hydropower scheduling, even with load data missing.

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  Hydropower optimization considers station constraints, prioritizing efficiency for optimal dispatching.

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  Model applied in Shatuo Hydropower Station, showcasing real-world performance & applicability without load data.