This study investigated whether patterns of impulsive decision-making (i) differ between individuals with DSM-5 substance use disorders (SUD) or non-substance-related addictive disorders (ND) and healthy controls, and (ii) predict the increase of SUD and ND severity after one year.
In a prospective-longitudinal community study, 338 individuals (19–27 years, 59% female) were included in one of three groups: SUD ( n = 100), ND ( n = 118), or healthy controls ( n = 120). Group differences in four impulsive decision-making facets were analyzed with the Bayesian priors: delay discounting (mean = 0.37, variance = 0.02), probability discounting for gains and for losses (each − 0.16, 0.02), and loss aversion (− 0.44, 0.02). SUD and ND severity were assessed at baseline and after 1 year ( n = 312, 92%). Predictive associations between decision-making and SUD/ND severity changes were analyzed with the Bayesian prior: mean = 0.25, variance = 0.016.
Compared with controls, the SUD group displayed steeper delay discounting and lower probability discounting for losses; the ND group displayed lower probability discounting for losses (posterior probabilities > 98%). SUD symptom increase after 1 year was predicted by steeper delay discounting and lower loss aversion; ND symptom increase by lower probability discounting for losses and lower loss aversion (posterior probabilities > 98%). There was low evidence for predictive relations between decision-making and the quantity-frequency of addictive behaviours.