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Abstract
In this article, we examine selected health indicators for the adult population aged
18 years and older in Germany (n=22,708) from the German Health Update (GEDA 2019/2020-EHIS)
conducted between April 2019 and September 2020. These indicators include those of
self-assessed health and depressive symptoms as well as chronic physical diseases
and conditions. In young adulthood (18 to 44 years), over 80% of participants report
good or very good subjective health. During this phase of life, most chronic diseases
and conditions are rare, although allergies are frequent, and bronchial asthma and
depressive symptoms are not uncommon. From mid adulthood (45 years and older), there
is a gradual increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular
disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and osteoarthritis. Over
60% of older adults (65 years and older) report a chronic disease or long-term health
problem, while only half continue to report good or very good subjective health. During
this stage of life, allergies and depressive symptoms become less prevalent. For some
diseases, there are also differences according to gender and level of education. This
article demonstrates the high public health relevance of age-associated chronic physical
diseases and health related limitations in everyday life in an ageing society as well
as the need to provide care for certain health conditions already in young adulthood.
The eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire depression scale (PHQ-8) is established as a valid diagnostic and severity measure for depressive disorders in large clinical studies. Our objectives were to assess the PHQ-8 as a depression measure in a large, epidemiological population-based study, and to determine the comparability of depression as defined by the PHQ-8 diagnostic algorithm vs. a PHQ-8 cutpoint > or = 10. Random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 198,678 participants in the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), a population-based survey in the United States. Current depression as defined by either the DSM-IV based diagnostic algorithm (i.e., major depressive or other depressive disorder) of the PHQ-8 or a PHQ-8 score > or = 10; respondent sociodemographic characteristics; number of days of impairment in the past 30 days in multiple domains of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The prevalence of current depression was similar whether defined by the diagnostic algorithm or a PHQ-8 score > or = 10 (9.1% vs. 8.6%). Depressed patients had substantially more days of impairment across multiple domains of HRQoL, and the impairment was nearly identical in depressed groups defined by either method. Of the 17,040 respondents with a PHQ-8 score > or = 10, major depressive disorder was present in 49.7%, other depressive disorder in 23.9%, depressed mood or anhedonia in another 22.8%, and no evidence of depressive disorder or depressive symptoms in only 3.5%. The PHQ-8 diagnostic algorithm rather than an independent structured psychiatric interview was used as the criterion standard. The PHQ-8 is a useful depression measure for population-based studies, and either its diagnostic algorithm or a cutpoint > or = 10 can be used for defining current depression.
Summary Background The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from 66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.
Obesity and impaired metabolic health are established risk factors for the non-communicable diseases (NCDs) type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative diseases, cancer and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, otherwise known as metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). With the worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), obesity and impaired metabolic health also emerged as important determinants of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Furthermore, novel findings indicate that specifically visceral obesity and characteristics of impaired metabolic health such as hyperglycaemia, hypertension and subclinical inflammation are associated with a high risk of severe COVID-19. In this Review, we highlight how obesity and impaired metabolic health increase complications and mortality in COVID-19. We also summarize the consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection for organ function and risk of NCDs. In addition, we discuss data indicating that the COVID-19 pandemic could have serious consequences for the obesity epidemic. As obesity and impaired metabolic health are both accelerators and consequences of severe COVID-19, and might adversely influence the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, we propose strategies for the prevention and treatment of obesity and impaired metabolic health on a clinical and population level, particularly while the COVID-19 pandemic is present.
Publisher:
Robert Koch Institute
(Nordufer 20 13353 Berlin, Germany
)
ISSN
(Electronic):
2511-2708
Publication date
(Electronic):
15
September
2021
Publication date Collection:
September
2021
Volume: 6
Issue: 3
Pages: 3-25
Affiliations
Robert Koch Institute , Berlin Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring
Author notes
Corresponding author Dr Christin Heidemann, Robert Koch Institute, Department of Epidemiology and Health
Monitoring, General-Pape-Str. 62–66, 12101 Berlin, Germany, E-mail:
HeidemannC@
123456rki.de
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