Factors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 : An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Key Points

Question

Are early estimates of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 indicative of current household transmission?

Findings

In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis of 87 studies representing 1 249 163 household contacts from 30 countries, the estimated household secondary attack rate was 19%. An increase in household transmission was observed over time, perhaps owing to improved diagnostic procedures and tools, longer follow-up, more contagious variants, and different study locations.

Meaning

These findings suggest that the household remains an important site of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and recent studies have generated higher household secondary attack rate estimates compared with the earliest reports; more transmissible variants and vaccines may be associated with additional changes in the future.

Abstract

Importance

A previous systematic review and meta-analysis of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that summarized 54 published studies through October 19, 2020, found an overall secondary attack rate (SAR) of 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%). However, the understanding of household secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 is still evolving, and updated analysis is needed.

Objective

To use newly published data to further the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the household.

Data Sources

PubMed and reference lists of eligible articles were used to search for records published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021. No restrictions on language, study design, time, or place of publication were applied. Studies published as preprints were included.

Study Selection

Articles with original data that reported at least 2 of the following factors were included: number of household contacts with infection, total number of household contacts, and secondary attack rates among household contacts. Studies that reported household infection prevalence (which includes index cases), that tested contacts using antibody tests only, and that included populations overlapping with another included study were excluded. Search terms were SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 with secondary attack rate, household, close contacts, contact transmission, contact attack rate, or family transmission.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Meta-analyses were performed using generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses ( PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall household SAR for SARS-CoV-2, SAR by covariates (contact age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship; index case age, sex, symptom status, presence of fever, and presence of cough; number of contacts; study location; and variant), and SAR by index case identification period.

Results

A total of 2722 records (2710 records from database searches and 12 records from the reference lists of eligible articles) published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021, were identified. Of those, 93 full-text articles reporting household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 were assessed for eligibility, and 37 studies were included. These 37 new studies were combined with 50 of the 54 studies (published through October 19, 2020) from our previous review (4 studies from Wuhan, China, were excluded because their study populations overlapped with another recent study), resulting in a total of 87 studies representing 1 249 163 household contacts from 30 countries. The estimated household SAR for all 87 studies was 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%). Compared with studies from January to February 2020, the SAR for studies from July 2020 to March 2021 was higher (13.4% [95% CI, 10.7%-16.7%] vs 31.1% [95% CI, 22.6%-41.1%], respectively). Results from subgroup analyses were similar to those reported in a previous systematic review and meta-analysis; however, the SAR was higher to contacts with comorbidities (3 studies; 50.0% [95% CI, 41.4%-58.6%]) compared with previous findings, and the estimated household SAR for the B.1.1.7 (α) variant was 24.5% (3 studies; 95% CI, 10.9%-46.2%).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that the household remains an important site of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and recent studies have higher household SAR estimates compared with the earliest reports. More transmissible variants and vaccines may be associated with further changes.

Abstract

This systematic review and meta-analysis combines data from a previous meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission through October 19, 2020, with new data from studies published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021, to provide updated estimates of household secondary attack rates.